Update on Iranigans

Last week’s discussions over Iran’s nuclear program ended in an impasse. While Iran announced publicly it was ready to talk about concessions in the near future, that was exactly what the talks were about in the first place. This was a classic delaying tactic by Iran and utterly transparent. How do I know this?

Well recall that opposing Iran are the United States and Israel. Israel has wanted to end diplomacy and deal with Iran sternly. Throughout the year Israel has made very public statements that it feels negotiating with Iran is a waste of time. Yet Israel does not militarily have the ability to unilaterally attack Iran and simultaneously prevent Iran from mining the Strait of Hormuz. This is because Israel’s navy is not powerful enough to accomplish this. Meanwhile, the U.S. has argued that diplomacy with Iran was the natural course of actions. Additionally, the Obama Administration has been brow-beating the Israelis about allowing additional Jewish settlements in occupied Palestinian territories since it took office. This earned Israeli ire. The Israelis prefer that the U.S. allow this issue to be an internal domestic issue, rather than an international chit served up to the Middle East’s Muslims. It seemed as if the U.S. was making concessions to the international community, and Iran in particular, to bring it to the negotiating table about the nuclear issue. In summary, there was a split in the U.S.-Israeli position in terms of how to deal with Iran.

So what would be make of the fact that yesterday the U.S. reversed its position on Israeli settlements? This reversal, by the way, has inflamed the Middle East and looks deeply embarrassing to the Obama Administration since it is a 180 degree shift. The only natural conclusion is that the U.S. is signaling to the Iranians and the international community that it is back in alignment with Israel. Note: the timing of this announcement comes immediately after the Geneva nuclear talks ended. The renewed bond makes an impending attack on Iran look more likely.

As further proof, remember the joint U.S.-Israeli military exercises that started a week late and specifically were about coordinating a response to a ballistic missile attack on Israel? Well those exercises are still ongoing and are now the longest joint military exercises ever undertaken by the U.S. and Israel. Supposedly the “Juniper Cobra” exercises are going to end later this week. It will be interesting to see if the U.S. military pulls out and heads home or whether or not they linger in the Middle East to pressure Iran on the nuclear issue. Iran really has no incentive to end its nuclear program because it will lose a source of regional and international power. Most estimates say that Iran is many, many years away from developing a nuclear weapon. So the power of the nuclear program resides in its ability to threaten. In a push and shove fight the Iranian position is essentially to keep saying: “If you don’t respect me I am going to pick up a rock and throw it at you.” All talk, no walk. The question is how much longer those with real military power, the U.S. and Israel, will continue to let Iran talk while it searches for that big rock.

At this juncture it is difficult to tell if the U.S. and Israel are just bluffing or if they really are sharpening their knives for a fight. Either way the brinksmanship continues and the stakes are getting higher. I will be watching this week to see if the U.S. military stays in the Middle East (which I think likely) and if Iran makes any conciliatory statements about really discussing an end to its nuclear flirtations.

Jason