Nuclear non-proliferation non-cooperation

Hello everyone. I hope that each of you had a nice weekend. Today I want to update everyone on what is happening with the Iran nuclear crisis as there are some new developments.

Development #1:

The Iranian government has rejected a deal it just made with the P5+1 nations (the 5 permanent members of the UN Security Council, plus Germany). Iran had agreed to ship the enrichment of its uranium outside of the country. That would guarantee to the international community that it was not enriching its uranium beyond energy grade quality into weapons grade quality. But then after it rejected the deal a senior member of the Iranian government said that the deal “might still be on the table.”

Clearly this is a delaying tactic on the part of Iran…we agree; no, we don’t; well maybe; no, we don’t; but if you…blah, blah. Why might Iran be doing this?

Development #2:

Inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency “discovered” that Iran has been experimenting with a nuclear device whose purpose is to be fitted to a warhead. This is a more advanced form of nuclear device than the international community believed Iran was capable of making. But I say “discovered” because the sole part of the P5+1 negotiations that Iran has honored was for nuclear inspectors to review its documents and facilities. For these documents to be discovered must mean that Iran wanted the inspectors to discover them.

It seems Iran wants a delay in the “negotiations” because it wants a full-fledged nuclear device to up the value of the weapons as a diplomatic negotiating tool.

Development #3:

Recall that Russia is the linchpin to the U.S.-Israeli strategy of peacefully pressuring Iran to stop development of nuclear weapons. Namely, gasoline and other sanctions on Iran won’t work because Russia possesses the ability to unilaterally aid Iran and circumvent any blockade of goods into Iran. This is because Russia has direct rail links into Iran. Russia is aiding Iran because it wants the U.S. to back off on its pressure of the Russian periphery. For us to understand the pressure Russia must feel, remember that Russia used to play in our neighborhood, too when they super-supported Cuba. Now imagine that the Russians were friendly with Canada and Mexico, too. I think that would cause some ulceration in the U.S., don’t you? But alas, the U.S. and Israeli “up the ante” strategy may be bearing some fruit.

Over the weekend President Dmitri Medvedev said that the Russians did not support sanctions against Iran, but that such a scenario is possible if there is no movement from the Iranians. This clearly ups the pressure on Iran.

Development #4:

Remember that one of the questions concerning this whole situation has been the degree of cooperation between the U.S. and Israel. Israel is the wild card. Because Israel would be the likely target of a nuclear warhead launched from Iran, it has to take Iran very seriously. The U.S. is way out of harm’s way. But Israel lacks the military might to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities and also prevent the Strait of Hormuz – the passage point for most of the world’s oil – from being mined by the Iranians. So Israel needs the U.S. to help prevent an economic catastrophe should the Strait be mined. Thus, any developments between the U.S. and Israel have to be closely monitored.

Well Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is visiting the U.S. to give a speech. Publicly he asked to speak to the Obama Administration. This would seem to be a public signal to the Iranians that Israel is paying attention. But the Obama Administration initially would not commit publicly to a meeting with Netanyahu. Why?

Development #5:

The Obama Administration has a very full plate, to say the least. It has its cornerstone domestic issue, health care, front and center in the public’s mind. It is also believed that Obama’s decision on Afghanistan is soon to be made public. And then there is the economy and its high unemployment rate. The economy is tender right now and can’t stand too much more needling. Because of the very narrow bandwidth of the media (by the way, U.S. media is awful and is decaying the foundations of our democracy) Obama seems to be trying to keep Iran out of the news. He doesn’t want people to get freaked out about Iran being much closer to developing a nuclear warhead than was previously believed, and thus force yet another issue into public scrutiny that requires a big decision. When an issue hits the media they obsess on it like piranhas on bleeding goat bodies. So far Obama has succeeded in keeping things quiet, but…

Development #6:

This morning the Iranians said that they are going to charge with espionage 3 (dufus) Americans who accidentally hiked into Iranian territory. Clearly Iran wants Obama to have to deal with it in the midst of a lot of other very important happenings. First, we have their allowance of the discovery that they are working on a more advanced nuclear device by the IAEA. This announcement was made public, but the media didn’t feature this story. And now we have the espionage charges. Iran wants to be the center of the U.S. media’s attention and consequently the public’s. Ugh!

So what’s going to happen?

Clearly everyone is still trying to up the ante in this situation. That does not bode well for a happy outcome. Remember when I made my call about this situation about a month ago I said that if the U.S. economy strengthened adequately it would mean that we could all plough back into equities and that the ramifications of an attack on Iran would be dampened. That is, “we could take it.” The economy is not at that place, yet. It seems as if the Iranians are counting on the fragility of the economy and a full-plate for Obama to lead to some sort of concession from the Obama Administration. I wish I could definitively predict what is going to happen, but I cannot. My best guess is that Obama tries even a little harder to keep Iran out of the news until the economy strengthens a bit more. I don’t see the likelihood of an attack right now because the Israelis seem to be trying to work with Obama and Obama seems to be trying to drag out negotiations, too. But we shall see. What I do know is that when tensions increase and increase and increase that clumsy decisions are usually made.

Jason