Crazy Iranians at it again

I hope that everyone had a nice Holiday.

CNN this morning is reporting that Iran’s cabinet has authorized the construction of another 10 uranium enrichment plants. The Iranians are claiming that the plants are for a civilian-only nuclear program. There are several implications of this announcement…

Implication 1:

The Iranians clearly do not respect President Barack Obama and have sized him up as a light weight. Why do I say this? Because Obama has upped the “severe sanctions” rhetoric against the Iranians. Furthermore, he has publicly negotiated with every party possible to increase the pressure on the Iranians. Yet, despite this, the Iranians not only announce that they are going to continue their nuclear program, but they also are going to expand it. Clearly the Iranians do not respect Obama’s chest thumping. In effect, today’s announcement could be rephrased as: “We dare you.”

Implication 2:

It’s obvious that the Iranians are using their nuclear program more as a political tool than an economic tool. While the Iranians are saying that the development of this program is for civilian energy use, the fact is that all of their announcements regarding the program are timed to irritate and provoke the West. If it truly were just for civilian use there are lots of ways that they could go about the development of this program with out provocation. Doubtless the Obama Administration can see through this, which is one of the reasons that Iran has not been attacked (yet). Unlike the North Koreans who have used their nuclear program to try and get the West and the Southeast Asian powers to pay attention to it economically, it’s not clear what the heck the Iranian’s want. This is why the Israelis are so nervous.

Implication 3:

On a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being bad news, today’s news out of Iran ranks about a 7. Why? Because it shows that negotiation is a fruitless strategy to try and get Iran to end its nuclear program. This means that if the West truly is interested in ending Iran’s flirtation with fission and fusion that it needs to figure out a way of stopping Iran with force. That force may take on the form of sanctions or war. The Iranians clearly understand these are the only options left to the West at this point. Given that, they have still responded as they have. This implies that they expect sanctions, not war; and its obvious that the Iranians do not fear the sanctions. Iran understands how difficult it would be for the P5+1 countries to enforce a full-fledged crippling sanctions program. So the only way for the West to end this is war. But no one in the West seems to have the stomach for it…save the Israelis.

Implication 4:

Iran knows the Israelis are the wild card in all of this. But in their calculus they must not fear an Israeli strike against their nuclear development facilities. Why else would they be playing this game of gigantic chicken?

What to watch for:

The most important thing to pay attention to is the response of Israel to Iran’s announcement today. Specifically, if the Israelis issue a response without specific threats then it is likely that they are planning an attack. Next in importance is the response of Russia. Russia will likely loudly decry the direction Iran is taking. But if Russia actually threatens Iran in its statement then it will mean that economic negotiations between it and the West are going well and that they have switched sides. However, the Iranians are not stupid – they have likely already checked in with Russia and received the OK to make today’s announcement. And after that the next most important response will come from President Barack Obama himself. Can he afford to let another country use the nuclear issue to manipulate nations worldwide? If Iran gets away with this, and it seems as if they will, then other nations will use the nuclear issue to manipulate the West.

Things are not looking good.

Peace out!

Jason