The interpolation interpretation

Yesterday saw one of the strangest events of recent memory: U.S. President Barack Obama accepting the Nobel Peace Prize while simultaneously upping the pressure in the war in Afghanistan. Tell me that’s not weird. And I really like B.O. – the President. But nonetheless something smelled funny. What?

Specifically Obama focused on his efforts as President at nuclear non-proliferation. Huh, that’s funny…because I only know of one such strong effort: the U.S. vs. Iran. In this context Obama called upon the help of the international community in stopping the spread of the nuclear affliction – though, I guess we remain infected. In fact, B.O. said there must be, “alternatives to violence that are tough enough to change behavior…That sanctions must exact a real price.” The President then brought out by name both North Korea and Iran and said, “those who seek peace cannot stand idly by as nations arm themselves for nuclear war.”

This is a funny smelling kind of thing for the U.S. Commander-In-Chief to say. This is because it is already obvious that sanctions against Iran are going to fail. If the Russians were going to spank their Iranian ally it would already have occurred. Instead the flirtations between the two chums, Russia and Iran (Russ and Irene), have increased. It is also obvious that the Israelis have no tolerance for either the diplomatic process or with a sanctions regime. So these statements make no sense, except that Obama also talked about…

The fact that the U.S. has seen itself since Dubya Dubya Too (World War II) as the international peacekeeper extraordinaire. Barack Obama then went on to describe “just” use of force to maintain the sanctity of the international system. Could it be that the President was softening up the Europeans and their likely outrage at a strike at Iran? I am not a betting kind of person, I am an Investor, but I do understand probabilities. It’s my feeling we have a greater that 50% chance of a U.S. strike against Iran based on Barack Obama’s Nobel Peace Prize acceptance speech. And the Cosmic Jester must be laughing.

I hope that everyone has a splendid weekend!

Jason