The sinking of a South Korean naval vessel
Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Mar 26, 2010 in Blog | 4 commentsGood afternoon folks!
Today saw the sinking of a South Korean naval vessel near disputed North/South Korean territorial waters. So far the information is sketchy. However, what is known is that the vessel sank rapidly and that many of its 104 crew members are feared dead. Another South Korean naval vessel is said to have returned fire at an unidentified vessel, but this is so far unconfirmed. If it turns out that North Korea intentionally fired on a South Korean naval ship and sank it, this would be considered an act of war and would be massively significant.
First of all, Seoul, South Korea is home to 25% of the South Korean population. Unfortunately, Seoul sits within easy striking distance of North Korea, so should war ensue casualties would likely be catastrophic. It is generally believed that South Korea has a superior military force and would win a war, but at tremendous cost.
Second, North Korea is a confirmed nuclear power with a reputation for unpredictable leadership. It is unknown what North Korea’s predisposition is to use its nuclear arsenal in any potential war. It could get very ugly obviously.
Third, the United States has 25,000 troops stationed in South Korea, so an attack on South Korea is, by proxy, an attack on the United States. It is uncertain what the United States’ position would be in any Korean peninsular war. The U.S. is already fighting to major wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as a potential third war in Iran. If the U.S. is drawn into a conflict it will draw U.S. resources away from its other two wars, as well as from other geopolitical hotspots such as Russia, Iran and Yemen.
Four, the financial market response has so far been tepid. I am not sure why because any military engagement in South Korea would likely be one of the most important global stories in the forthcoming decade.
I will be keeping a very close eye on the situation for any developments. For now, let’s hope that the cause of the sinking was an onboard explosion and not a North Korean attack.
Jason
Barak Obama, Ban Ki Moon = Neville Chamberlain. How about a Predator strike to welcome the new dictator to his throne? Of course that would require courage
As far as N. Korea…They have bullied themselves to the negotiating table too many times now.In exchange for aid they give false promises to disarm.Their repeated acts of war and nuclear evolution have gone too far.I say get together with S. Korea and Japan and deploy some U.S. tactical nuclear weapons. This should show them that we are serious about defending our allies. HAPPY THANKSGIVING
The north koreans see Pres Obama as a week leader and they are absolutely correct,even now i bet there are just shaking in there boots over his responce to the issue.Maybe he can make a trip there and sit down and sing cooooomby raaa with the north’s new little leader
That, however, is exactly what Kim Jong-il wants: a return to a diplomatic dog-and-pony show that confers prestige on his regime, yet never actually derails Pyongyang’s nuclear procurement and proliferation.