That old blog standard: initial jobless claims

Yesterday saw the initial jobless claims report from the Department of Labor.  Claims fell by 24,000 to 456,000.  More importantly, the four-week moving average of claims rose by 2,750 to 460,250.

Analysis: While the corporate profit data and the official gross domestic product data may indicate that the recession is over, the hangover continues as evidenced by the “treading water” nature of the U.S. employment situation.  The fact is that the data continue to indicate an economy that is not creating jobs.  That means one of two things:

1.  That businesses are still not confident enough in the overal trajectory of the economy to be adding jobs; or…

2.  That sales are not robust enough to justify hiring new employees.

Importance grade: 8; next to the overall unemployment rate, to my thinking this remains the most important data in the investing world.  However, I have downgraded the number to an 8 from either a 9 or 10.  The reason is that the economy is improving and its my feeling that businesses are gaining confidence.  That will eventually lead to hiring.  So the jobless claims number should abate soon.

Jason