In April the United States added 290,000 jobs, far, far more than the 180,000 jobs economists had been expecting. What’s more, March’s originally reported increase of 162,000 has been revised upward to 180,000. Despite these job adds the unemployment rate rose to 9.9%.
Analysis: I wish I could say that I was surprised, but I am not. I have been saying now since March’s big performance by auto manufacturers that the recession was over and that job creation had to be just around the corner. I also said that the unemployment rate was going to stay stubbornly high for awhile as people who had previously given up looking for work, and who are thus not counted in the unemployment statistics, returned into the prospective employee pool. That is exactly what has happened.
What I did not expect and what is such a nice surprise is the very large number of jobs added last month! Normally I do not provide quantitative projections. I evaluate qualitatively and trust that the numbers eventually follow. So an add of 290,000 jobs, a 61.1% outperform over expectations is frankly, phenomenal.
Importance grade: 10; just yesterday I said that the ADP data being in line with expectations warranted a low importance grade. Well today’s gigantic outperform warrants a 10. This should be the boost in confidence that your average U.S. citizen has been wanting, as well as your not-so-average investor.
Jason
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