Retail sales for September surprise…barely

The U.S. Commerce Department reported today that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% in September.  This compares to an expected increase of 0.4%.  Meanwhile, sales for the month of August have been dramatically revised upward.  Initially, August’s purchases by consumers were reported up 0.4%, but now are reported to have been up a much more robust 0.7%.

Areas of strength included: consumer electronics, appliances, furniture and especially automobiles.  The only real area of weakness was clothing.

Analysis: It is clear that the U.S. consumer is slowly, very slowly, extremely slowly putting her toes in the consumption waters again.  Each month seems to bring increased purchases of new goods and products.  I am particularly happy about the 0.3% increase in August’s figures.  First, that minor increase in absolute terms (3 cents on $100) is still an upward revision of 75% in relative, percentage terms.  As I talk with family, friends, acquaintances and others the mood of the U.S. consumer seems to be improving.  Additionally, my intuitive sense is that the vibe of the U.S. consumer is stable and that there is a growing confidence that was missing even two months ago.

Further, if you look at the areas of the retail sales report that were strong they were all “big ticket” items, like appliances and autos.  These items require a bigger cash outlay on the part of consumers.  It is likely the case that folks are waiting for these things to break down and then they are replacing them.  However, to purchase a new big ticket item is different than to repair it.  That there is a preference for buying instead of fixing is noteworthy.

Lastly, note that scion of excess consumption, clothing purchases, was a weak spot in the report.  I consider this to be indicative of a consumer whose confidence is still growing, but not back to the spendthrift days of yesteryear.  And I actually feel that is a good thing.  Better to spend on necessities while you get your financial house back in order.

Importance grade: 9; for all of the reasons named above.  Also, the revisions to retail sales over the last many months have almost been all up.  Lastly, there is a slow acceleration in the numbers.  That seems to be indicative of slowly increasing confidence.

Jason