Jobless claims data improves

Labor Department figures released today show that initial jobless claims in the United States fell by 3,000 to 420,000.  Meanwhile, the four-week moving average was a decline in claims of 5,250 to 422,750.

Analysis: Some media outlets are pointing to these figures as evidence of a slowly improving labor market.  My own opinion is that these data fall well within the bounds of statistical error.  In other words, a reduction of 5,250 people who were just fired and are filing for unemployment benefits is not much to write home about.  For me the essence and import of the data is that jobless claims are not increasing, but are largely treading water.

The ugly jobs situation in the U.S. has barely improved over the last month despite U.S. businesses having the cash to be able to change that state.  So the “game of chicken” has barely subsided.

Importance grade: 10; the jobs situation remains the singularly most important economic statistic globally.

Jason