Implications of Egyptian revolution

Yesterday I described what I felt intuitively was going to happen in Egypt.  But even if the scenario does not unfold as I described it there will still be enormous change in Egypt.  What are the implications of this change for the rest of the world?

1. Egypt sits at the eastern end of the Mediterranean and in North Africa.  This strategic position means that what goes on in Egypt affects the rest of the world.  Most importantly Egypt controls the Suez Canal through which much commerce, including oil, transits.  Because of the size of this commerce many folks are watching Egypt with alarm and fear of what will happen to the flow of goods from the Mediterranean into the Persian Gulf and vice versa.  That is, what is the affect on worldwide GDP?  Ultimately, instability is the fear here.  Even if the revolution in Egypt results in a non-secular, Islamist government, that government will need to ensure the flow of goods around Egypt in order to ensure the economic viability of the nation.
2. As one of the most important, and consistently supportive U.S. allies in the Middle East, Egypt is the linchpin of stability in the Middle East.  Pull out a map and you will see that Egypt sits at the heart of the Middle East.  Having Egypt as an ally allows the United States to project power into Libya, the Sudan, the Gaza Strip in Israel, Syria, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Lebanon, and so forth.  Any change in Egypt from a secular nation to an Islamist nation would strongly damage the United States’ Middle East strategy.  It would also increase the insecurity of additional U.S. allies in the region, like Israel, Jordan and even Turkey to the north.
3. The unraveling of other Middle Eastern nations.  It is no secret that the Middle East is a concentrated place of old school, almost Medieval feudalism.  Unemployment is chronically high, opportunities are extremely limited, women are second class citizens, there is very little democratic rule so voices and frustrations are not hear but are oppressed instead, and other than oil, there isn’t much industry.  If you and I were citizens in the Middle East I have a feeling that we would be on permanent simmer.  The question is whether or not Egypt’s transformation in quick succession to Tunisia’s will trigger revolutions elsewhere in the Middle East.  Let’s be frank.  These nations need to change and they need to join the 21st Century.  However, a gentle transition to greater representation is certainly preferred to violent revolution or even civil war.  If Egypt falls out of control the chances that it happens in other Middle Eastern states is increased significantly.
4. A caliphate?  Many of the conservative religious elements throughout the Middle East have a stated goal of re-establishing the caliphate theocracy.  In other words: let’s party like it was 1514!  If, in Egypt, a conservative Islamist rule is installed it is very likely that a similar politicization of religion will take place in much of the Middle East.  In the long run this will likely mean greater manipulation of oil prices, increased terrorist attacks, more oppression of under-represented classes of people (e.g. women and non-fundamentalist Muslims), less science, a very different kind of education, and economic backwardness.

In conclusion, the primary implications of the revolution in Egypt are the effect on oil prices and hence the global economy; and the power status of the United States in the region as dictated by a new Egyptian regime.

Jason