Mubarak resigns the Presidency of egypt

Hosni Mubarak, Egypt’s embattled “President” has resigned along with other cohorts from the ruling National Democratic Party.  This is the end of a very tense situation in the Middle East.  I am certain that financial markets around the world will rally on this news.

Now the hard work begins.

The overriding question is: what will the government of Egypt look like next?  The most unified and powerful opposition party in Egypt is the Muslim Brotherhood.  An organization that has seeded some radical Islamist factions over the course of the 20th and 21st centuries.

My own personal feeling is that the MB’s power will be ably checked by the largely secular Egyptian military.  Additionally, most of the Egyptian people identify themselves as Egyptians first and Muslims second.  This primarily national, rather than primarily religious,  identity is a rarity in the Middle East.

Almost two weeks ago I used my intuitive process to assess the situation on the ground.  Recall that at the time it looked like there was going to be armed revolution.  Here is what I predicted using an intuitive process, rather than solely an analytical process:

1. Order is finally present.  While there are still outbreaks of protest on the periphery, the overwhelming majority of Egyptians are now sitting on the sidelines wanting the situation resolved.
2. It feels like the order is coming from the military of Egypt.  This is not a bad thing.  The military is generally a secular institution in Egypt and has been the guarantor of safety since the days of Nasser.
3. The military is not interested in a military dictatorship, but in a society and culture that is stable and that works for most Egyptians.
4. Hosni Mubarak is not in charge in Egypt any longer even though he is yet to resign.  To me, his predominate focus is not on re-establishing himself or establishing his son as President.  Instead, it feels as if he is making arrangements to leave Egypt.
5. It feels as if his departure will happen before Wednesday.  Depending on the situation on the Street the military will begin meeting with political forces to craft the future of Egypt.
6. Post this revolution Egypt will be a more democratic, stronger nation and a nation that will assert itself more regionally in a primarily cultural values way.
7. It won’t be until mid-Spring that the new Egypt begins to root itself.  In the meantime there will be tremendous anxiousness on the part of Egyptians.

How’d I do?  In my own honest assessment I was completely spot on.  The only thing I got wrong was the number of days until Mubarak would resign and I was off by only several days.  In other words, in the midst of what seemed to be an increasingly combustible situation, I felt that the situation would calm down and a peaceful resolution would be found.  So my qualitative assessment was spot on – even if the quantitative assessment was slightly off.

Several weeks ago most pundits said that Mubarak would only leave after violent revolution and that he might win in such a confrontation.  Compare the uncertainty of those standard assessments with that of an intuitive process well applied.  Folks, this is the power of intuition at work!  It helps you to truly tune into uncertain situations to make very accurate assessments.

As I said above, now the hard work begins.  Once the ecstasy permeating the Egyptian opposition settles they will realize that the primary thing that united them, Hosni Mubarak, is no longer acting as an attractor point.  Now they, along with the military, need to figure out the future of Egypt.  Expect more updates to come.

Jason