Intuitive Assessment of Middle East Unrest

There are currently 11 countries in the Middle East that are experiencing either anti-regime or demand-for-change protests.  With issues involving such gigantic complexity facts oftentimes stop short of generating either a clear or fully descriptive picture of what is happening.

Here I am going to take each of the countries in turn and use an intuitive process to contribute to the plethora of factual information already available.  Note: I don’t think of intuition as a substitute for factual analysis, but as a compliment.  I think of intuition as an additional, critical source of information about the state of the world.

For each country I am going to report a “likelihood of revolution” score on a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 being a certain revolution.  I will also share with you my views of the overall tenor for each country.  At the end of the post I will discuss some of the investment implications of the unrest.

• Algeria (2)

Currently Algeria feels calm to me.  There is a contentment with the state of affairs there.  While the population would like to see additional changes within their country, there is a sense that they are willing to let the process of reform initiated in January and February to run their course.

• Bahrain (9)

There is deep fracturing between various constituencies of Bahrain.  On one hand you have the Sunni minority government that is content with the state of affairs.  On the other hand you have a very violent Shiite majority that is very interested in taking Bahrain over for themselves.  Unfortunately, it feels as if there are gigantic outside influences manipulating the situation.  I am fairly certain that there is going to be a reorganization on the part of the Shiite population in order to launch another uprising.  The timing of which seems to be the next 3-5 days.

I cannot feel much of a plan in place for the country post the current regime.  There seems to be revolution for revolution’s sake at this point.

• Egypt (5-6)

The people of Egypt are happy that Mubarak has stepped down from office.  However, there is deep suspicion that the military may not allow a government to form that reflects the will of the people.  Peace and prosperity are what the people desire.  To me it feels as if the military is open to this future possibility, yet they want to remain the silent force behind Egyptian society.

• Iran (4)

While there is tremendous unhappiness in Iran with the theocracy, fear of the regime trumps revolutionary fires.  In fact, the government of Iran, emboldened by its border with Iraq being the most secure it has been in hundreds of years since the removal of the countervailing weight of Saddam Hussein’s Baathist force, is feelings its oats.  To me the government of Iran feels extremely active, organized, covert and with a long-term plan of regional dominance.

• Jordan (2-3)

Mostly the situation in Jordan has calmed down tremendously.  Islamist forces certainly want a greater say in Jordanian politics, however the discontent is not of the fomenting revolution king.  Instead, the force is one of low-level, yet constant, pressure for change.  That said, there is a very minor feeling in Jordan of chaos, meaning that the state of affairs is not stable.  There may be more open protests, but the intention of the protests will be to capitalize on the moment to increase pressure, not to overthrow the monarchy.

• Libya (8)

At the moment Libya outwardly would appear to be the most volatile of the nations in the Middle East.  If nothing else, the number of reported deaths that have occurred since the uprising began there would suggest violent revolution.  However, there is a sense of calculated action behind the forces at play that isn’t present in Bahrain.  It’s almost as if there is a coup of succession taking place.  At the moment Gadhafi’s forces seem to be the more powerful of the factions at work.  The possibility for continued violent clashes seems imminent as a “feeling out” of the two sides takes place.  Any flinching on the part of one party or another will lead to a power vacuum that is likely to be filled with greater dominant intent conducted through violence.  The question in Libya will be which of the thugs is the lesser of evils.  I feel that the net result after the turmoil in Libya that the nation will look largely the same: people ruled by a tyrannical thug.

• Morocco (4-5)

The people of Morocco certainly have grievances but their movement is not organized enough to overthrow the powerful forces of Moroccan society.  Additionally, it feels to me if only a minority of people in the North African nation are truly interested in violent revolution.  Instead, the majority are okay with the state of things and would like better lives.  In short, the oppression here just is not large enough to serve as a fire starter.

• Saudi Arabia (2-3)

The Saudis have firm control over their nation mostly through their high quality intelligence of the goings on of their people.  In particular, the important sources of power within the country are in alignment with one another.  Here I am referring to the monarchy, the theocrats and the military.  In other words, there is not a big divide amongst the power institutions in Saudi Arabia.  While there is tension amongst a portion of the Saudi population, their force of will toward revolution is mostly in the form of wishful thinking.

• Syria (2)

Most of the population of Syria is content with the state of affairs in the nation.  To me it feels as if the military of Syria does not quite have full respect for its leader Bashar al Assad; and there is a consideration on their part of what could be done to take advantage of the Middle Eastern unrest.  But again, this is not true strategizing; more like responsible military planning.  It feels as if several clans in Syria are disaffected and discontent, but they are not powerful enough to form any sort of collective movement against the ruling family.

• Tunisia (3)

I would characterize the people of Tunisia as largely suspicious right now.  They are glad with the shifts that have taken place in their nation, but they are in a wait and see mode.  Consequently, there is a pressure present in the collective consciousness of Tunisia that will not allow for any backsliding.  Discussions are being held amongst the leadership of Tunisia to accommodate the populace with the least amount of concessions.  In short, it feels as if the waters are still agitating at a low level.  If the power centers of Tunisia do not accede to the demands of the people there is still ample frustration present to push the nation back into foment.

• Yemen (9)

Yemen to me feels like a nation about to descend into violent confrontation. The constituencies arrayed there are very interested in complete dominance of their opposition.  The various factions also are prepared to use violence in order to achieve their means.  Yemen also has the feeling of being a chess piece in a wider, regional game.  In other words, there are outside influences at work here that have made Yemen a vested interest.  Of the nations I have reviewed so far, Yemen seems to have the greatest potential to pull the United States into further involvement.

Overall it is my feeling that the net effect for the entire region of these various uprisings is a quantum leap forward.  I have said previously on this blog that the Middle East is one of the places on the planet where vestiges of Medieval feudalism remain.  In the modern era however, people have such tremendous access to information, and economies are so interconnected, that it is nearly impossible to permanently oppress a people.

One of the primary concerns of observers of the Middle East is whether or not radical Islamists will fill the power vacuum with their fundamentalist rhetoric, seize power, and further devolve the region.  My feeling is that the fundamentalists have only ever had power to the degree that the people of the Middle East do not have access to economic opportunity, education, freedom of expression and freedom from fear of dictatorial government.  In a post-thug world there is tremendous opportunity to institutionalize true economic and democratic reform and yet maintain the sacred quality of Muslim culture, all without fundamentalism.

Economic Concerns

It will come as no surprise that the predominate reason to care about the goings on in the Middle East has to do with that precious hydrocarbon juice known as oil.  Unrest in the Middle East is very likely to cause oil prices to rise as the ability of these nations to protect their oil fields, as well as protect their ability to continue to pump it out of the ground, is believed to be less secure.  This is the short-term effect of unrest in the Middle East.

Long-term the consequences of unrest in the Middle East are likely to be reduced oil prices.  Why?  It’s very likely that the citizenry of these countries will have greater, more representative governments at the end of the revolutionary cycle.  Greater economic development in the region beyond black gold can only help to dilute the power of the elite in these nations.  That should make the oil supply steadier and less volatile.

Geopolitical Concerns

The ramifications of these movements are going to be felt for at least the next decade.  Those nations that don’t experience institutional turnover in power will eventually.  The reason is that you cannot oppress people so unrelentingly without consequences.  In terms of how change manifests there are five components:

1. Inspiration
2. Imagination
3. Thought
4. Word
5. Deed

In the Middle East many of the nations right now have populations inspired to initiate protests in the hopes of creating change for their nations and for themselves.  Some of these forces are applying creativity and imagination to the activities (Jordan), while others are not (Bahrain).  Clearly there is a lot of crystallization of creativity into thoughts about what to do to affect change.  The ‘word’ portion of manifestation has to do with commitment, as in, “I give you my word.”  Right now, not all of the nations that are experiencing unrest have in place the necessary will power in order to overturn decades old thugs.  As for the deed, it may appear that deed is simply protesting, but it is not.  It is the energy necessary to see the previous four steps to ultimate fruition.

The reason I bring this model up is that the inspiration for protest and possible revolution is now in place in the Middle East.  Furthermore, it will be a part of the collective consciousness of the region for at least a generation.  That protest can be used to overthrow a leader has two examples already in place.  Oppositional forces therefore, even if thwarted, will simply reorganize.  So change in the region is inevitable.  I am guessing in 10 years the Middle East looks more like 19th century Europe, rather than 15th century Europe.

Jason