Escalating Tension Between Palestinians and Israel

While the Middle East has been embroiled in foment and near-revolution since January the usual suspects of regional tension, the Palestinians and Israel, have been very quiet.  Not so anymore.  From the outside looking into the situation between these long-time rivals it looks as if the Palestinians are trying to provoke Israel into retaliation.  Such an action would send the entire region into chaos as it would inflame and embolden the Muslim street.

Here is a list of the major Palestinian provocations over the last several weeks:

1. 11 March: A Palestinian group calling itself al Aqsa Martyrs Brigade Imad Mughniyah claimed responsibility for the brutal stabbing murder of an entire, random Israeli family that lived within an Israeli settlement.  This action set the people of Israel on edge, even those who are opposed to settlements.  However, the Israeli government seemed to recognize this shocking act of brutality for what it was: an intentional provocation to enter the fray of Middle Eastern meltdown.
2. 22-23 March: Large numbers of rockets and mortars were fired out of the Gaza Strip into Israel.  Again, there was no Israeli military response.
3. 23 March: A suicide bomber exploded a bomb at a bus station in Jerusalem
4. 24 March: More rocket fire out of Gaza into Israel.  The Israeli military finally retaliated via air strikes in Gaza on 24 March.

Various parties have claimed responsibility for the attacks, all of them with some form of ties to Iran.  In my Intuitive Assessment of Japanese Disaster, I stated: “What is going to happen in the Middle East now?  There have been strong indications of Iranian meddling in the various “revolutions” taking place in this volatile region.  Are the Iranians so crass, cynical and power hungry to take advantage of a distracted world?  I’m not certain.  It feels as if to me that the Iranians have lifted their finger off of the Middle Eastern crisis lever for now.  However, it also feels as if to me that they still are leaving their options about creating more stress in the Middle East on the table.”

Right now it appears that the Iranians are so crass, cynical and power hungry.  With the world distracted by Libya, Japan, rising oil prices, supply chain disruptions, and other chaos, the Iranians appear to be trying to escalate the crisis in the Middle East to the breaking point.

At this point the situation seems to be in a simmering boil with an increasingly impatient Israeli public.  Let’s hope that the people of Israel can recognize the situation for what it seems to be: an intentional crass attempt to shake the entire region into chaos.  My intuitive feeling at this moment is that Israel will not boil over.  But then again, I can also feel strong Iranian willingness to continually press this issue.

Jason