Various economic data mostly positive

Today quite a lot of economic data hit the news. Here is a summary of stuff…

• New claims for unemployment last week were at their lowest level of the year. The claims are measured using data from the states. Obviously this is a positive sign. On a 4-week basis the claims also dropped. This data point is highly volatile because it is not just a raw number and includes estimates and adjustments from government analysts. It was last week’s version of this number that sent the financial markets into a renewed panic mode.
• Wholesale inventories fell again. This is a positive sign because it means that the excess amount of goods that businesses have on hand are slowly disappearing. That has to happen before those same businesses will invest in manufacturing more goods.
• Quite a few retailers reported their sales figures. These numbers compare the past month’s sales with the year prior’s sales. Not surprisingly these figures were mostly all down. Why? Because the figures were compared to last year’s month of June when most of us all received government stimulus checks. That said, many retailers are seeing high-single digit to low-double digit drops in their sales. There is increasing evidence that the U.S. consumer is weaning himself/herself from rampant shopping. Short-term this is a bad thing. Long-term this is a good thing.

Net, I would call these data neutral. Some big companies have begun reporting and there will be lots of information there to help us all get a better sense of where the economy is truly headed.

Jason