Jobless claims still improving

I have said for sometime that the job market will be one of the last things to improve as the economy recovers. This is largely due to the expense of finding workers, training them, paying them and benefiting them. So businesses reluctantly hire. Last week the number of initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to 530,000. Because this number is volatile a four-week moving average is frequently reported to smooth the numbers. That smooth figure showed a decline in initial jobless claims of 11,000 to 553,500. Continuing jobless claims also fell and by 123,000 to 6.14 million.

While positive, I do not consider these to be much of an improvement. It looks more like treading water to me. But the good news is that these numbers are a sign of stabilization.

One interesting thing to note in terms of learning how to think like a financial analyst…

Notice that all of the figures are round figures ending in zeroes. This is always a sign of estimated data rather than actual data. That’s important because it is an indication that these data are less reliable and always need to be taken with a grain of salt. It’s also a sign that the data are likely continually revised as factual documentation backs up, or refutes, initial assumptions.

Be well!

Jason