Upping the ante in the US-Russo crisis

Yesterday U.S. Vice-President Joe Biden spoke publicly in Romania. The content of his speech was designed for two audiences: all of the countries along Russia’s western border and for Russia itself. Specifically he stated:

“The United States stands against the 19th-century notion of ‘spheres of influence.’ We will not tolerate it, nor will we be co-opted by it…

“We know from history that destroying old oppressive regimes is a great deal easier than building new flourishing democracies. But you’ve delivered on the promise of your revolution. You are now in the position to help others do the same…

“You can help guide Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine along the path of lasting stability and prosperity. It’s your time to lead. Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus can benefit from your personal experiences. … And we will partner with you in working to fulfill the promise of 1989. But your leadership needs to be bold and your voices loud.”

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The message to the Russians could not be more clearly and directly stated: we are willing to play hardball. Remember that the reason the Russians are supporting Iran in its bid to gain nuclear weapons is to have a bargaining chip to get the U.S. out of Russia’s “near abroad.” During the Bush Administration there was a big push to court the border states around Russia’s periphery. The idea was to permanently disable the Russian state from the global stage. Because Russia has no geographic impediments to invasion it needs buffer states to secure its borders. So by allying with the states around it the U.S. was trying to so pre-occupy the Russians so that they wouldn’t be able to operate on an international scale. The strategy very nearly worked. But then the U.S. got super bogged down in Iraq.

To stabilize Iraq the U.S. had to court the Iranians to pull on the leash of the Shiites in Iraq. That courting of Iran left the U.S. vulnerable and opened the door for the Iranian nuclear crisis. The Iranians realized that the U.S. needed a stable Iraq and consequently a friendly Iran, more than the Iranians needed anything for the U.S. So the Iranians began in earnest to develop nuclear capability, knowing that the U.S. had to turn a blind eye. Furthermore, the Russians saw an opportunity to gain a bargaining chip with the U.S.: get off of our periphery and we will stop aiding Iran, otherwise they will be nuclear.

The U.S. blind eye was turned until recently. But the success of the “surge” strategy in Iraq, plus the still tenuous success of the political balance in Iraq, has meant that the U.S. can finally afford to push back against the Iranians on the nuclear issue. We have discussed the dynamics of this on the blog. In short, the non-military strike option relies upon crippling economic sanctions against Iran. The easiest lever to pull is to cut off gasoline supplies to Iran. However, Russia single-handedly can undermine those sanctions. Russia also single-handedly is helping Iran with its nuclearization.

This is the game of chicken that is taking place (out of view of the U.S. press, mind you). So Russia has really upped its rhetorical support of Iran during the foment. That is the context for Joe Biden’s speech yesterday. That speech says to Russia that the U.S. is not backing off and that it is Russia’s turn to either up the ante and tensions again, or to back off. The problem for the U.S. in this scenario is that it is making speeches about intentions. Whereas, Russia invaded Georgia last year and fought a three week war to demonstrate to the West that it really meant business. Additionally, the Russians are providing nuclear support to the Iranians. Which do you think weighs more on the geopolitical scale, actions or words?

Because the U.S. has countered Russian action with rhetoric and non-action, the Iranians and Russians are unafraid of the U.S. So the U.S. can continue to get blustery or it can actually engage in a military strike. It all comes down to two things: will the Israelis sit idly by, or will Barack Obama have the will to strike militarily? It is getting breathtaking.

Have a great weekend!

Jason