What is Iran up to right now?

Today the U.S. press will be full of stories stating that Iran is ready to talk nukes. The Iranians certainly know how to work the press. The press loves “talks.” Mostly because “talks” are newsworthy and it means that there is something to report. However, the Iranians have been promising “talks” for many years now. You see, long ago the Iranians (like the North Koreans) discovered that their images in the West as crazy insane regimes was a good thing. Because citizens in the U.S. are afraid of a nuclear Iran it means that the Iranians can manage the U.S. government through the press. How?

The Iranians and the North Koreans both play a version of good cop – bad cop. First they get real blustery about their nuclear programs and nuclear tests. That gets the attention of the citizenry, especially a citizenry tired of years of war. Then relief comes when the Iranians say they are ready to “talk.” This is designed to limit the options available to Western leadership, particularly the military option. Strike now and on the world stage the West is the “aggressor” and appears unreasonable; after all “we were prepared to talk.” The problem is that the “talk” is a massive delaying tactic that allows Iran to continue to develop its technology and to seek support from the Russians and the Chinese. Both of those nations enjoy seeing the U.S. flounder.

So what is Iran wanting to “talk” about now? Iran is talking about offering to continue talking. Yes, that really is what their statements boil down to. This is more of the same and has been their modus operandi for years now. They offer nothing of substance in negotiations other than to talk. Zzzzz. Both the U.S. and (especially) Israel are tired of no progress being made on the Iranian nuclear issue. Here’s the evidence.

1. The U.S. has sent one of its hawks to Moscow to talk with the Russians about its recent rethink of its nuclear rules of engagement and Iran. U.S. envoy James Jones has reportedly told the Russians that both Israel and the U.S. are prepared to use military force should Iran not comply. Ideally the U.S. would like to impose economic sanctions instead, but the Russians have said that they oppose that and will assist the Iranians if gasoline sanctions are imposed. So the U.S. and Israel have to demonstrate that sanctions are the only option, otherwise they will attack Iran and destroy its nuclear facilities. Russia does not want this because it uses Iran as leverage on the U.S. to get it out of countries on its Western border.

2. Interestingly, Israel has sent its defense minister to these very countries. Not surprisingly the content of those discussions is the selling of military hardware to these nations.

3. Israel has also sent a high level diplomat to Moscow to reinforce the message: we will attack.

4. The U.S. and Israel are continuing their ballistic missile military exercises in full view of the public.

5. Lastly, Stratfor is reporting that its sources have said that the U.S. strategic petroleum reserve people have been put on alert. This reserve is used to provide the U.S. with fuel in the event of war or other calamities. Read: it is expecting a supply disruption or a price spike. Reading between the lines: a supply disruption and price spike are anticipated if Iran is attacked.

6. U.S. GDP finally officially expanded. This gives President Obama, the Europeans and Israel more room to maneuver. Because the economy has been shaky the last thing that the economy needed was another war in the Middle East. But with the economy stabilizing and growing it makes the military option more likely.

It’s getting breathtaking folks. The big question remains whether or not U.S./Israeli bluster will be enough to end Russian support of Iran. If so, we will have sanctions. If not, we will have military strikes on Iran.

Jason