A shift by Russia seems to be brewing

After spending almost all of 2009 badgering each other over the Iran issue, Russia and the United States seem to be easing tensions between themselves. Yesterday was quite an interesting day in the Iran nuclear issue. Let’s review what happened…

Iran charges 3 Americans with espionage:

Taking a page out of North Korea’s playbook, Iran yesterday announced that 3 U.S. hikers arrested last summer for straying into its territory were going to be charged with espionage. I said yesterday that this was a clear upping of the ante for Iran and an effort to get Western media to get the Iran crisis onto the front page. Given the gravity of these charges by the Iranian state against the 3 hikers and Iran’s non-cooperation in negotiations one would expect that the U.S. would have issued another, sterner ultimatum to Iran. This seemed even more likely because Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu was in Washington D.C. at the time. So what happened?

U.S. says Iran needs more ‘space’:

The U.S. envoy to the International Atomic Energy Agency, Glyn Davies, announced yesterday that the U.S. felt Iran needed, “some space…to work through this.” He went on to say, “It’s a tough issue for them, obviously.”

This statement is a 180 degree reversal from the brinksmanship of this entire year. So what the heck is going on? Is Obama the weak international player that much of the world feels he is? Is it the opposite; that the U.S. and Israel are close to attacking Iran and they want to keep their cards close to their chest? Or is it something else?

The something else could be:

There is no doubt that gasoline sanctions against Iran would be crippling to their economy, except that Russia single-handedly could circumvent any international sanctions. So what was the Russian response to yesterday’s Iranigans?

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev was in Germany to mark the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin wall. While there he gave a number of interviews to international reporters. In those interviews he reiterated three primary things about Russia’s role in the international system: as a partner to European states (read: we sell you natural gas and oil); as a counterbalance to U.S. hegemony (read: we are closer to Europe, so Europe needs to respect our boundaries); and most interestingly as a mediator on the Iranian situation. Huh? That’s an interesting statement from Medvedev because Russia has strongly stated that there is no room for negotiation on Iran. Russia is strictly against sanctions – period. So what’s going on here?

Russia has said nothing against sanctions for the last few weeks. In fact, as I stated on the blog the lone statement that came out hinted that they were amenable to sanctions. And over that stretch the U.S., U.K., and France have all sent diplomats to Russia. What are they discussing? It appears that what has been discussed is the possibility of western economic aid to Russia. [Thank God.] It would be a welcome relief for this blog publishing investor to get back to talking about business, instead of geopolitics.

Why would Russia be interested in economic incentives when for years they have been disinterested in Western investment? Of all of the world’s major nations Russia has been the nation most devastated by the global recession. They suffered the triple whammy of a recession, retreated international investors and a collapse in energy prices. Is there some sort of evidence that this is why the U.S. reversed its Iran position so danged dramatically?

Medvedev has publicly announced that he and Barack Obama are going to be discussing Russia’s sphere of influence and Western cash being sent into Russia. When? This weekend at the Asia-Pacific Economic-Forum which both Medvedev and Obama are attending.

Clearly this weekend will be critical to whether or not we get back to talking about GDP, consumer confidence and U.S. businesses on this blog. Not to mention, a huge sigh of relief that the U.S. won’t be entering another war in the Middle East and all of the attendant chaos that might bring.

Stay posted!

Jason