Weighing in: Israel and Russia

Earlier this week I posted an update as to how the Iranigans show down is progressing. Specifically, it looks as if Russia may be ready to sell out Iran. However, Israel still is the wild card in the Iran-nuclear drama. If Israel choose to unilaterally take out Iranian nuclear facilities then there isn’t much that the rest of the world can do about it. So tracking Israel’s response is critical.

Israel’s response to U.S.’s Iranian concession:

On Tuesday Israel Defense Forces Chief (think: chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff), Gabi Ashkenazi, spoke to Israel’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. What he said was out of step and much more stern than the language coming from the Obama Administration. Ashkenazi said that his nation was preparing for all options to stop Iran from developing nuclear capability. He also said that the world’s powers should make a decision by the end of the year.

Clearly Israel was not happy with the U.S.’s 180-degree switcheroo regarding Iran. My speculation earlier this week was that the U.S. and Russia are still in negotiations about the Iranian situation. So what has Russia been saying these last few days?

Russia’s rumblings:

Dmitri Medvedev is currently preparing his State of the State (think: State of the Union) address for the Russian people. And there is quite a lot happening in Russia right now. In particular, it looks as if Russia is ready to re-open its economy up to the West. In the last 10 years under Vladimir Putin (who is still Prime Minister and Prime Puppet Master) Russia had eliminated the power of the industrial Oligarchs and installed former members of the FSB (the old KGB) in charge of these entities. This proved to be a disastrous choice because the major industries in Russia were run inefficiently by bureaucrats and like personal piggy banks.

So among the rumblings coming out of Russia are moves to re-privatize Russian industry. Specifically, criminal investigations were initiated into 22 state companies all with connections to the FSB. Let’s just say that Russian justice is more punitive than most. This is really a coup of sorts under the guise of a legal maneuver. Another rumbling has been the noticeable softening of Russia’s tone toward the idea of sanctions against Iran. All of this precedes a meeting between Medvedev and Obama that is to take place next week. These moves are not coincidental.

What appears to be happening is that Russia is prepared to sell Iran down the river, allow gasoline sanctions against Iran (which will cripple it) in exchange for Western softening of support of nations on its periphery and for Western investment. So Medvedev’s speech this evening will be very interesting. Last year’s speech was all sturm und drang as the Russian President called for a return to Russian might and a strong opposition to the U.S.

Ironically, if another war (with Iran) can be avoided we will have the mortgage crisis in the U.S. and Western world to thank for Russia’s concessions. Funny how the world works some times.

In the meantime, I will continue to update readers as to what’s going on.

Jason