You heard it here first

I normally don’t post on Sundays but there is significant news coming out of the “Association of South East Asian Nations” (ASEAN) meetings. The Wall Street Journal states:

“After meeting privately with Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, the leaders of the U.S. and Russia declared that ‘time is running out’ on Iran. They demanded an answer to a Russian proposal to send Iran nuclear isotopes for research in exchange for the closure of a nuclear enrichment plant that the West believes is for weapons use.”

Regular readers of the blog have had a many months leading edge insight into the progress of the Iranian nuclear issue. This is one of the only two times in that period that the mainstream media have reported on the story. Gotta love it. When they report in this fashion, where stories just emerge from the mysterious undergrowth, there is no context. Consequently the news is just blushed over by most readers. However…

This is significant news. In all likelihood Russia has sold Iran down the river in exchange for either a U.S. and European guarantee that Russia may continue to reign over its geographic near-abroad, or deep investment in the Russian economy, and most likely both are true. We will need to pay attention to announcement of trade deals, as well as any additional statements issuing forth from the major players in this crisis as to gasoline sanctions.

Because Russia has been recalcitrant, China could afford to be recalcitrant among the P5+1 nations (Permanent 5 U.N. Security Council members + 1 floating member) in voting against strong gasoline sanctions against Iran. China can now hardly afford to be the only member of the P5+1 to not vote for gas sanctions. So gasoline sanctions against Iran look very likely right now. This is the more peaceful of the routes toward ensuring Iranian compliance with Western will. Most importantly, Russia has possessed the single handed ability to circumvent and quash the effectiveness of any sanctions. Russia has said that in the event of gasoline sanctions against Iran that it would transport all of Iran’s gasoline needs into Iran via rail. Furthermore, it is Russia that has been lending its nuclear technology to the Iranians. In other words, Russia was the linchpin. Now it appears that Russia has changed sides. So now what?

For Medvedev to have made such a strong and public statement against Iran means that he received something tangible from the Obama Administration and Europe. So we will need to watch for any announcements of a deepening of relationships with Russia. Additionally, Israel still is the nation involved that is most directly threatened by Iran’s nuclear ambitions. What Israel has to say about this will be very important as they still possess the military wild card. However, it is highly unlikely that Israel will unilaterally stand against the U.S., Russia, the rest of the P5+1, and Europe on this issue. But only time will tell. Additionally, Iran, likely stunned by Russia’s betrayal, has yet to reformulate its strategy. Their next public statement will be very, very telling.

In conclusion, it appears that the Iranian nuclear crisis is very nearly over. We are almost out of the woods but not quite. In conjunction with a strengthening U.S. economy and the health care domestic issue simmering down, the U.S. is almost in the cat-bird seat for closing this issue out.

Remember: you heard it here first.

Jason