Courting Germany to court Russia

Let’s adjust context for a moment from the economy and financial markets back to the topic of Iran’s nuclear program.

Germany’s Foreign Minister is currently in Israel to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Shimon Peres and Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. Germany has long been the one European nation that consistently has political and business dealings with Iran. Additionally, Germany is the nation in Europe that is trying to deepen its ties to Russia. This makes sense since Russia provides Germany with a majority of its energy needs. Russia is also courting western investment at the moment and German firms seem to be the most anxious to provide capital to their eastern neighbors.

So these meetings between Germany and Israel appear to have been called by Israel. It’s likely that Israel is growing tired of the P5+1 countries emphasis on negotiations with Iran. Even if the negotiations fail the discussion is focusing on possible sanctions against Iran; sanctions that would likely fail to illicit the response Israel wants regarding Iran’s nuclear program and ambitions. Israel thus seems to be breaking away from the P5+1 nations and trying to deal with Iran alone. Because Iran is right on Israel’s doorstep and has continually supported organizations and efforts to end Israel’s very existence, Israel could be forgiven for wanting something more ironclad than “sanctions” in dealing with Iran.

Thus it appears that Israel wants to convince Germany to convince the Russians to end support of Iran and also reduce Germany’s own support for Iran. The problem is that Israel really does not have much to offer Germany in return. Israel is not stupid, it understands this. Therefore, these meetings have the whiff of trying to appear to do the right diplomatic thing so as to reduce criticism once something more severe is done. Something like bombing the Iranian nuclear facilities.

I don’t want to sound alarmist, but Israel is clearly acting independent of the U.S. at this point. As I have been saying for some time Israel is the wild card in this whole crazy situation. And they appear to be getting wilder.

Jason