Irrelevant jobless claims?

Something very interesting has happened today with regard to the weekly Department of Labor jobless claims data.  “What,” you may ask has happened?

The news is not front page news on the Wall Street Journal’s website.  Instead the data are only available on its ‘Economy’ sub-section.  This is the first time since the Great Recession ensued that this has happened.  I do consider this to be an important sign that the emotional tenor of the economy is changing.  Recall that in my 2011 predictions post I made the following general statement about a major theme:

“Back to the Future – Greater cohesion and stabilization will result in a rhetoric and an imagining on the part of individuals with an emphasis on the future.  Folks have been focused on the immediate present in an unhealthy way.  That has led to short-term decisions whose consequences are not fully understood.  An analogy would be when you first get a severe cut on your body.  Your attention is focused entirely on how to stop the bleeding.  Then your attention shifts to how to stop the pain.  Then your attention shifts to what the long-term ramifications are to your body – this is the stage we are entering in my opinion.  Ultimately, the injury creates a scar that serves as a reminder of what went wrong, but the focus returns to the future.”

That the jobless claims data has slipped from WSJ front-page relevancy is significant.  It means that the psychology of people, in general, is improving.

So what could have led to the sub-section relegation?

Initial weekly jobless claims fell by 37,000 to a total of 404,000 claims filed.  What’s more, the previous week’s data were revised in the right direction.  Last week’s jobless claims number was changed down by 4,000 to a total level of 441,000.

The decline of 37,000 is the biggest drop since February 2010.

More importantly, the four-week moving average figure improved, too.  That number showed a decline of 4,000 to 411,750.

Analysis: While the jobless claims data has slipped from front page relevancy, the data do remain relevant.  However, the front page slippage is warranted.  The Great Recession has statistically been over for more than a year and a half.  But the hangover of the unemployed has remained.  That headache is finally showing signs of abating.  A tremendously good, good thing.

It’s my feeling that by May the U.S. economy will, net, be adding jobs.

Importance grade: 6; the jobless claims number is now stable and declining.  So the jobless claims data is becoming less and less important.

Jason