Soap opera continues…

Happy Thursday folks!

I write this from a Starbucks in Littleton, Colorado. Though I am traveling I am still on top of things for everyone. Today’s post is an update of the Iranigans situation. Though there has not been much noise about Iran in the last 3 weeks, there is still a lot going on. For example…

Israel

Israel is laying the groundwork for a military strike against Iran. I kid you not. Several days ago Brigadier General Yossi Baidatz, the head of Israel’s Military Intelligence research division, told a closed door session of the Knesset’s (the Israeli legislature) Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee that Iran possesses the technical capability to produce a viable nuclear weapon. The General also claimed that Iran had enriched 1800 kilograms of uranium. That’s more uranium than is necessary for one weapon. Additionally, Baidatz highlighted that Iran had upgraded, and publicly announced, its missile delivery systems. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also addressed the Knesset and said that Iran had lost international credibility in its handling of its nuclear development program.

The first thing to note is that, according to Stratfor (i.e. Strategic Forecasting, Inc.), that Iran does not have the ability to enrich uranium enough for a weapon. They do have the capability of enriching uranium enough for nuclear power usage. Not only that, but assuming Iran had the ability to enrich uranium to the levels needed, then 1800 kg is more than enough for one weapon. So, in other words, Baidatz is stretching the truth. Why would he do that? And also importantly, how is that we are hearing the intimate details of a closed door session with the Knesset?

Clearly Israel is announcing its distaste for how the international community, especially the U.S., is handling Iran. Who can blame them? Iran sits right on the door step of Israel and has waged a cold war against Israel since the 1970s. The truly important question is…how distasteful is Israel finding the Iranigans right now?

It’s Stratfor’s opinion, and mine, that Israel is clearly communicating that the time is for Iran to put up or shut up. President Barack Obama has said repeatedly that Iran has until the end of the year – three weeks from today – to comply with the West’s demands, or face scary consequences. The problem is that Iran, Israel, Russian and every other nation on the planet knows that until Obama wields the bite, that he is just barking.

As I have been saying from the beginning of this mostly veiled crisis, Israel is the wild card. That the U.S. and Russia are flirting with one another was an encouraging sign as Russia single handedly possesses the ability to tighten the vice on Iran. However, the discussions between Russia and the U.S. are moving slower than Israel wants them to. What that means is that it is increasingly likely that Israel will act unilaterally and militarily to shut the Iranian nuclear program down. Israel just wants its position to be listened to and respected. But Obama is focused overwhelmingly on Afghanistan and Iraq. In the next several weeks I would expect more blustery comments coming from Israel as they signal their intent to the international community.

It looks like things are about to get ugly.

Jason