The assassination of an Iranian nuclear scientist

Earlier today in Iran a nuclear scientist was assassinated with an improvised explosive device. At this point no one has taken responsibility for the murder. My hunch though is that Israel’s intelligence service, Mossad, is behind the attack.

The likely Iranian response will be to:

• crack down even harder on those believed to have western sympathies
• dig their heels in even more on the nuclear issue so as to appear strong relative to western pressure
• craft a retaliatory response

Because of these probable responses the U.S. is not likely to have initiated the attack. This is because the attack doesn’t serve the U.S. interest of keeping the Iranian situation in a state of order vs. chaos. Other western nations are also unlikely to have assassinated the scientist. So we are left with three possible assassins:

• Russia may have assassinated the scientist in order to foment the Iranian situation leading to further distraction for the U.S. A distracted United States keeps its eye off of Russia’s near abroad. However, it’s my feeling that Russia is unlikely to have engaged in this behavior. The reason is that the U.S. is already distracted enough and if the U.S. were to learn that the assassination was ordered by Russia, the U.S. response would likely be to involve itself in Russia’s affairs even more.
• Iran may have assassinated its scientist. This is especially true if Iran felt that its scientist was a spy for the west. Rather than criminally prosecute the scientist, an assassination allows Iran to increase the public ire against the west. This allows Iran carte blanche for stamping out western influence in the country and sends a message to the west that it has infiltrated the western intelligence apparatus.
• Israel. In my opinion, Israel is the most likely assassin of the the nuclear scientist. If Iran amps up its pressure, especially through retaliatory action, it makes stronger the Israeli case to the United States that Iran is not really interested in negotiations with the west. It also sends a strong message to Iran that Israel can and will act within Iran to defend its interests.

In conclusion, the cold war between the west and Iran is escalating. The higher the pressure the more likely this situation shifts from cold war to HOT WAR. It’s not looking good.

Jason