Another crisis in Jordan?

One of the questions on the minds of those of us concerned about the revolution-evolution in Egypt is what the effect will be on other Middle Eastern nations.  After all, Egypt’s crisis began after a popular uprising in Tunisia.

So you may have heard the news out of the country of Jordan today that King Abdullah II has fired the entire government of Prime Minister Samir Rifai.  It’s likely then that you are also concerned that the Middle East is about to have a colossal meltdown.  In turn that will send oil prices sky high and derail the nascent economic recovery.  Am I right?

1.  Know that these situations are not comparable apple to apple.  The primary difference is in the relationship of Jordan’s leader with the people he governs.  King Abdullah, while not heading up a perfect nation, has listened to his critics and tried to accommodate them.

For example, in Egypt the Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, is outlawed, whereas in Jordan it is a legitimate, functioning political force.  In Egypt, the Muslim Brotherhood has been routinely squashed and its leadership imprisoned as a threat to the state.  In fact, in Jordan the MB is an important part of the government.

2.  In both Egypt and Jordan there have been anti-government protests, but the goals of the opposition forces in the two countries are very different.  In Egypt they want an entirely new political structure, a democracy.  They also want Hosni Mubarak to step down and to have actual multi-party democratic elections for the first time in Egypt’s history.  While in Jordan, the opposition is not looking for regime change.  Instead they are wanting economic reforms, largely due to the large unemployment rate and slow growth of gross domestic product (GDP) in Jordan.

Clearly there is a vast difference between these two sets of demands.

In conclusion, it is obvious that Jordan’s King Abdullah is not undertaking these actions due to an immutable opposition, but instead to preempt being swept away in a tsunami of Middle Eastern revolution.

I hope this news analysis is both intuitive and beneficial!

Jason