Weekly Jobless Claims Improve

This morning the U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly jobless claims number.  Data showed an improvement in the figure to the tune of 16,000 – meaning that fewer people filed for unemployment last week than the week prior.  In total, initial jobless claims were 385,000 last week.

These numbers are usually very volatile so I prefer to look at a four week moving average in order to smooth the data.  That number fell by 7,000 to an overall level of 386,250.

Analysis: Today’s jobless claims number is additional evidence of a stabilizing, if not stabilized, job market.  By ‘stabilized’ I do not mean that it is radically improving; I mean that the foundations are solidifying.  Other recent data has also showed that the number of jobs in the United States is growing.

It remains to be seen what the effect of the Japanese disaster will have on overall global gross domestic product (GDP).  Specifically, I am concerned that the amount of anxiety being kicked into the air by the post-earthquake-tsunami nuclear situation in Japan will cause U.S. consumers to tighten their fists around their wallets again.  If so, the effect would be a slow down in economic growth.  Any slowdown could lead to an additional damper on job growth and could, in a bad case scenario, result in lay offs.  I consider this scenario to be remote.

Nonetheless, I will be monitoring these data very closely for signs of Japan-driven anxiety and braking on GDP.

Importance grade: 9; because of the timing of this report (i.e. during the Japanese crisis), any good news is welcome.  So these data take on a greater significance than they have in some time.

Jason