Yemen is Nearing Civil War

Yemen’s conflict  has largely fallen along the Muslim sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite.  The forces, mostly armed police, loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh have clashed with the citizenry of Yemen all while the forces of the army looked on.  However, in the last day as Brigadier General Ali Moshen Al- Ahmar of the Yemeni army announced that he has joined the revolution on the side of the protesters.  This is somewhat similar to what unfolded in Egypt in February.

The general happens to be President Saleh’s half-brother, however as General Moshen became more powerful over the last decade, Saleh has delegated more power to his own son and preferred successor.  So in this time of crisis in Yemen General Moshen has mutinied to the opposition forces.  Both sides in the conflict now seem roughly matched.  Unless one of the two sides gives in it appears that Yemen is approaching a civil war.  This is strongly in line with my Intuitive Assessment of Middle East Unrest published 22 February, 2011, there I said of Yemen:

“Yemen to me feels like a nation about to descend into violent confrontation. The constituencies arrayed there are very interested in complete dominance of their opposition.  The various factions also are prepared to use violence in order to achieve their means.  Yemen also has the feeling of being a chess piece in a wider, regional game.  In other words, there are outside influences at work here that have made Yemen a vested interest.  Of the nations I have reviewed so far, Yemen seems to have the greatest potential to pull the United States into further involvement.”

Clearly my assessment was fairly accurate, though the U.S. was pulled into Libya first, I still feel that it will be difficult for it to ignore what is happening in Yemen.

Separately, one of the reasons that I have not yet updated my Intuitive Assessment of the Middle East is that the crisis has not yet shifted its trajectory significantly.  No have the various crises resolved such that a review of its accuracy could be made.

I have continually monitored the situation and will continue to do so.  When I feel as if there are important details to update I will.

Jason