How many people are looking for work?

Because the stock markets are closed tomorrow due to Good Friday the initial jobless claims data was reported today by the Department of Labor.  Here’s the skinny…initial jobless claims were down by 6,000 to a level of 439,000.  Meanwhile, the previous week was revised upward by 3,000 more jobless claims.  The four-week moving average which aims to smooth volatility declined by 6,750 to 447,250.  This is the lowest level since September 2008. 

Analysis: There really isn’t much interpretation here.  While the jobless claims figure is reaching levels last seen a year and a half ago, the fact is that the unemployment situation is treading water.  Today’s data, coupled with yesterday’s ADP jobless data, shows an economy whose private sector continues to shed jobs, not add them.  The majority of jobs that are being created right now are government workers.  Given that the private sector (consumers and businesses) funds the public sector, this is not a long-term sustainable trend.  At some point the private-sector economy has to start adding jobs.

I find the way this data is covered in the press very interesting.  The actual numbers are glossed over, whereas information such as “lowest level since September 2008” is emphasized.  We will know that the economy has truly recovered when it doesn’t need to be talked up by the media and can instead speak for itself.

Importance grade: 4; this number is losing relevancy only because it continues to demonstrate a sideways movement.  The importance will increase when the trend breaks either positively or negatively.

Jason