Consumer Confidence Up Is Important

Consumer confidence rose to a level of 65.4 in April according to its tracker, The Conference Board.  Meanwhile economists had expected a level of 65.0.  March’s consumer confidence was revised upward slightly from 63.4 to 63.8.

Analysis: I have said it so many times on the blog that it is almost redundant, but consumers drive the U.S. economy and its growth in gross domestic product (GDP).  For the economy to do well the fragile psyche of the U.S. consumer has to feel safe.  That’s hard to do when unemployment remains historically high, there are three wars being waged by the U.S., there is some degree of  chaos in the Middle East, rising gas prices are hitting consumer budgets, and other iffy news.  Iffy is a technical term.

Last year at this time, the fragile consumer psyche was re-establishing itself after the Great Recession when the “flash crash” dropped Wall Street on its back and then the Greeks decided to scare the whole world with its economic inanity.  Frankly, I think what is confronting the U.S. consumer right now is more severe – yet consumer confidence is rising.  That is important.

What is missing?  For me, as an investor, what is missing is a palpable intuitive sense that the Great Recession is behind the U.S. consumer.  It still feels as if to me that the U.S. consumer is informing her/his life based on the Great Recession, rather than the reality of a new economic environment.

Even beyond my intuitive sense of this is the fact that we are missing the Noun.  What do I mean by that?  What was the name of the Internet driven economic boom of the late 1990s?  That’s right, the Dot.com era.  How about the economic boom that followed that Dot.com era?  Yes, the Mortgage Boom (and Bust).  What is the noun, now?  There isn’t one.  Why?  Because this era still hasn’t separated itself in the consumer mind from what came before: The Great Recession.

What will lead to an abandonment of Great Recession thinking?  Continued improvement in the economy and in consumer confidence.  That’s why consumer confidence being up in the midst of so much potentially bad economic news is important.

Importance grade: 9; ’nuff said.

Jason