Osama bin Laden’s Death Changes Little, But Maybe…

While psychologically important, Osama bin Laden’s death in an Islamabad, Pakistan suburb early Sunday morning changes little.  But perhaps there is a window of opportunity now for the United States to re-prioritize.  Our efforts to negate the importance of al Qaeda were important, but, in my opinion, are beyond overwrought.

Frankly, the intelligence organizations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have so effectively negated al Qaeda that bin Laden had become irrelevant except as a symbol.  Want proof?

Name the most recent successful terrorist attack carried out by al Qaeda in the United States since September 11, 2001.  There hasn’t been one.  Yes, there have been attacks in Spain and England, but not in the United States.  Al Qaeda has remained a force only in the Middle East – especially in Iraq and Yemen.  Everywhere else they have been rooted out and negated.

In fact, what is left of al Qaeda is largely symbolic and rhetorical.  That is, their potency remains in their ability to inspire lone wolf jihadists who are of a more amateur caliber than al Qaeda back in its heyday.  Think: the bungled explosives attack of Times Square’s would-be bomber.

That said, it is possible that the American public will now be able to “let go” of some of the pain and suffering of September 11, 2001 and will be open to U.S. troops exiting Afghanistan.  In my opinion, the “war” in Afghanistan is not winnable using conventional weapons.  Why?

Tough terrain.  Tribal culture.  A culture that has honed its resistance tactics over multiple generations.  A strategically unimportant location – a landlocked Central Asian country that connects to nothing of true importance for the United States.  An exhausted-by-war American public.  A motivated Afghan people.  And so forth.

My hope is that Osama bin Laden’s death allows our fellow citizenry to relax, breathe out a sigh of relief, and to let go of an expensive, dead end operation.  President Barack Obama promised to find and bring to justice Osama bin Laden and now he has.  Now the capital invested can be released.  That capital has not just been money and lives, it has been psychological intensity.  Whew!

Yet, because the United States must continue to rely upon the oil of the Middle East, we will continue to be politically and militarily interested in the region.  Consequently, there will always be those who want the United States and Western Europe out of their homeland and their Holy Land.  So Osama bin Laden’s death changes little tactically.

That the United States allowed for Osama bin Laden and his supporters to distract our entire foreign policy, military efforts and trillions of dollars for half a generation was unnecessary.  It is now time to shift our gaze to the entire geopolitical spectrum, not just laser focused on one region.

While we have been obsessed several countries have been growing their power with little U.S. intervention.

First, Russia has rebuilt itself and become emboldened enough to invade a country on its periphery that was a U.S. ally; not Afghanistan, but Georgia.  In 1980 that drew an appropriate response from the U.S. – not a full on land war, but a covert war.  The response in Georgia was a verbal lashing.  Why?  Not because of a lack of military will, but because of a lack of military resources.

Second, Iran has become the dominant power in the Middle East.  How?  Using covert tactics to dominate Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Bahrain.  Thus, it has encircled Sunni Saudi Arabia.  Largely this was made possible because the U.S. military has been engaged in two theaters of operations and unable to check Iran’s (literally) millenniums-old territorial ambitions.  In the long-run this means oil prices sensitive to the whims of the Iranians.

Third, China has taken advantage of the U.S. resource suck of two wars to grow its economy.  Meanwhile, it has helped to underwrite our foreign wars by buying our government issued bonds.  How does that make you feel?

Fourth, and closer to home, is Venezuela.  Hugo Chavez is mostly incompetent.  However, his regime has led to increased radicalism on the South American continent.  This wouldn’t be a big deal if Venezuela was a banana republic, but it isn’t.  Instead, Venezuela is an important oil producer.  Because of the short distance to the United States, transportation costs for Venezuelan oil are cheaper, therefore oil from there helps to mitigate the resource suck of oil importation.

Fifth, and right next door, Mexico is increasingly a failed state dominated by its murderous drug cartels.  In a time when the United States is not distracted, it is highly unlikely that one of our neighbors would be so destabilized.

Sixth, and most importantly, the U.S. economy is in critical need of the resources drained off to continue to fight two dead end wars.  I am not arguing for more government spending.  Quite the opposite.  If the U.S. is not shelling out tax payer money for Iraq and Afghanistan it can begin to pay down its debts.

My point?  Osama bin Laden’s death has changed little, but maybe the United States can at last re-prioritize itself and its needs and not let one man and his ambitions dominate U.S. foreign policy, military and trillions of dollars of resources.  It’s time to move on.

Jason