Update on recent Iranigans

Loyal readers of the blog know that last fall I was tracking very closely Iran’s nuclear power and weapons ambitions.  I believed very strongly that there was a possibility for a hot war to emerge in the Persian Gulf.  Instead a cold war seemed to be the course of action chosen by the Obama administration.  However, even that may be a moot point now.

Very early this morning, a deal was announced between the countries of Turkey, Brazil and Iran.  Turkey and Brazil are currently two of the non-permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.  Thus, the deal has the imprimatur of having been done within the bounds of the international community.  The deal seems to suggest that Iran has agreed to one of the terms of the international community for resolving its nuclear crisis.  The deal agreed to has Iran shipping its low-enriched uranium to Turkey for reprocessing.  The enriched fuel rod would then be sent back to Iran refined only enough for commercial, not weapons applications.  Importantly, the deal has Turkey serving as the country where the reprocessing takes place, rather than Iran, which had been a sticking point.  This is in accord with requirements made by the U.S. and European nations last fall.

Iran has not agreed to end its uranium enrichment program.  So it remains to be seen whether or not this deal will be accepted by the western powers that have been confronting Iran.  Also unclear at this time is what sort of monitoring the Iranians have agreed to accept.  For any deal to be palatable to the United States and others, it would need to allow for other nations to continually monitor Iran.  Otherwise, Iran could continue to develop uranium enrichment programs secretly in order to ultimately have the Bomb.

This deal has massive geopolitical ramifications if accepted by the U.S. and others.  First, Iran has been rattling its sabers in Iraq putting into question the wisdom of a U.S. troop withdrawal in August.  Second, Iran also holds cards for the war effort in Afghanistan because it provides one of the shortest logistical routes into the country.  Third, Iran has the ability to send Lebanon and consequently, Israel, into paroxysms.  Iran and the United States have been sounding off against one another for over a year because of these issues.  So Iran’s compliance on the nuclear issue likely indicates U.S. acceptance of Iranian demands elsewhere, especially in Iraq.  Time will tell.  I will continue to monitor this situation closely.

Jason