Egyptian ‘Revolution’ Update

On 15 February, 2011 I wrote a post entitled, “Archetypes Are Obscuring the Understanding of Egypt” that was about the unrest in Egypt that was then unfolding.  My specific focus was about how people’s, including the press’s, obsession with archetypes was obscuring an understanding of the reality on the ground in Egypt.

I stressed that to understand what was really happening in Egypt required ignoring the archetypal story and actually paying attention to what was taking place there.  I said:

“Former President Hosni Mubarak is a man in his eighties and in failing health.  For several years he has been trying to prepare Egypt for his death or health problem induced retirement.  Mubarak’s efforts were to try and substantiate his son Gamal Mubarak for the presidency.

“This choice was strongly objected to by the military establishment of Egypt, and for many reasons.  One reason is that Gamal Mubarak is not a military man.  Therefore, his allegiance to the ruling institution of Egypt was less than the military wanted.

“Let’s review Egypt’s political power history going back to the last century.  Egypt was under the rule of a monarchy until Colonel Gamal Abdul Nasser led a military coup to topple the monarchy.  Nasser eventually became a civilian leader – but his power was maintained by his connection to the military establishment.

“Nasser’s successor, Anwar el Sadat, was also a military man.  When Sadat was assassinated, his successor, Hosni Mubarak, was also a man of the military.  Egypt’s continuity, its secularism, its potency resides in its politics having been institutionalized by the military.

“Who is in control of Egypt now?  The military.  Over the weekend you may have heard that the Egyptian military has dissolved parliament and suspended the Egyptian constitution.  Frankly, it remains to be seen if the military is truly interested in sharing its power democratically, or if it really supported the Egyptian demonstrators as a means to an end.  That end – the disposal of the Mubarak clan – was something the military had publicly been advocating for many years.

“This is the real Egypt, not the archetypal Egypt.”

In fact, I published this same analysis as a part of my contributions to Forbes and several folks in the comments section said that my analysis was cynical.  So what is happening in Egypt now that the rest of the world has focused its electronic eyeballs elsewhere?

On Tuesday evening in Tahrir Square protesters violently clashed with Egyptian security forces and Reuters reported that over 1,000 people were injured in the clashes.  Why, if the ‘revolution’ in Egypt was such a success and an archetypal “Oppressive Dictator” was ousted by archetypal “Democratic Revolutionaries,” are there still widespread protests?

Perhaps things didn’t change as much as was at first believed by the people and press obsessed with the archetypal story.  In fact, the opposition has been publicly demanding that elections be held in Egypt before a new constitution is written.  Why?  Because if elections are held then elected leaders will craft the new constitution.

If the constitution is written first then the Egyptian military, which is serving as a Protectorate, gets to dictate the future course of the nation.  Any election held after the constitutional process will be subject to that constitution.

Unlike the ouster of ex-President Hosni Mubarak when the Egyptian military supported the protesters, the military is now clashing with those same protesters.  Have the demands of the protesters changed dramatically?  No.

Sans the ability to look behind archetypes an analysis of Egypt would have missed the reality of Egypt.  Beware the archetypes!

Jason