Greek Debt Risk Still Present revisited

I won’t say I told you so, but I will highlight that just one week ago on 4 July, 2011 I said that “Greek debt risk [was] still present,” specifically saying:

“Last week the Standard & Poors 500 Index surged 5.6% having almost everything to do with the possibility of a resolution to the Greek debt crisis.  Most market participants felt that the situation was resolved.  You might have noticed that I did not blog about the possible solutions being bandied about.  Why?

“Because frankly European solutions to eurozone or European Union issues tend not to be ones of substance.  Instead, they tend to push into the future a decision that could and should be made today.”

So today global financial markets are awash in news that the “plan” that had been agreed to is unraveling.  For example, the Financial Times is carrying a story with the headline: “EU stance shifts on Greece default: Possible end to French-backed plan for debt roll-over.”  By point of contrast, I wrote last week:

“Additionally, the word on the Street – and here I mean Wall Street and other financial streets – is that many banks are less than thrilled with the coercive (preliminary) solution that was predominately brokered by France.”

What is the natural consequence of fears of the plan potentially coming unraveled?  That’s right, financial markets around the world are in sell off mode.  At the time of this post the DJIA is down 1.07%, the S&P 500 is down 1.50%, the NASDAQ is down 1.86%, and the euro relative to the U.S. dollar is at a 7-week low.

Additionally, many traders are reporting a fear of a debt contagion in Europe as the attention of investors is now shifting to Portugal, Italy and Spain.  Again, the weakness in these economies, coupled with high amounts of debt, is something I have been talking about for over a year.  See, for example, my post on 10 February, 2010 entitled: “Moment of Crisis for the EU.”

The problem with forestalling an honest realization of issues in life is that dishonesty requires more dishonesty in order to perpetuate itself.  In turn, that makes the eventual reckoning that much more painful.  Ouch!

Separately, you may have heard that debt negotiations in the U.S. are at an impasse – a French word meaning “broken down” – and that the parties are very far apart in their discussions.  Nothing like a little game of American roulette to increase the confidence in your economic situation, eh?

So as I have been saying for awhile: we aren’t past the twin debt crises of Greece and the United States, yet.

Jason

[To Citizen John: do you feel better now?  Your assessment was an accurate one!]