Idiot Russian professor

You may have seen the story that has been running in the Wall Street Journal for the last week or so about a Russian college professor, ex-KGB, that has been predicting the demise of the United States by 2010. He has been making these predictions since 1998. This has been the top “most read” story for about 7 days on the WSJ.

While I believe that the United States, and 1st World economies in general, have a lot of structural changes that need to take place, I think that the United States is a looooong way away from collapse. There are two predominant power structures in the United States: business and politics.

First of all, the U.S. has an outstanding business infrastructure. This takes the form of a fairly good regulatory framework; for the most part, liquid capital markets; and generally well-managed businesses. The elements of this structure took many generations to form and represent a tremendous investment of time and energy. More importantly, built into the structure is a good deal of flexibility. Assuming that the people in charge of these institutions are willing to change, and all evidence is that they are willing, then the system has the capability of adapting to new environments. Therefore, it is tough to imagine the business culture of the United States collapsing and falling into chaos to the degree that the Russian-idiot-dude is prognosticating.

Second of all, the U.S. political culture is also very time-tested. As you all know we have a tripartite system of government whose checks and balances creates a near ideal form of power distribution along with built in brakes on out of control power abuse. Obviously there are times and places where power is unevenly distributed when power is too concentrated in a narrow group of individuals. However, even in the darkest times of U.S. history, the Law of the United States has trumped individual power. For example, many lefties claimed that the Bush Administration of 2000-2008 was really a Monarchy. Yet, Bush did not try and change the law so that he could have a third term in office. The Law so far has trumped any individual’s pursuit of power or any individual’s possession of power. Again, that does not mean that abuses do not take place as they certainly do. Other evidence that the political structure of the United States is operating well is that politicians still look at public opinion polls when crafting platforms and policy. I think that the Russian-idiot-dude ought to look at his own nation’s recent political history for lessons in what collapse looks like.

*****

The other major thing that I wanted to highlight is that people like this Russian-guy have outsized voices relative to their import due to the poor functioning of media. In particular, I wanted to highlight the fact that this guy has been making these predictions since 1998 and is just now getting notoriety. Is he brilliant? In the minds of the Russians he is brilliant because he looks as if his predictions are “coming true.” However, there are many hundreds of people who make predictions on a daily basis about economies, political structures, etc. whose predictions never come true. This guy looks smart because the recent data somewhat resemble his predictions. But it is only in looking backward that we could identify this guy. Had the U.S. economy gone another direction then the media would have found the gal or guy who had predicted its current shape and course. And then that person would have been the “brilliant one.” I’m not so into the backward looking data mining in which the media engages. The reason the Russian guy is getting particular attention is that “so far” he looks correct, but in addition to the predictions through 2008, he predicts a “fiery ball of doom-laden death” (quotes are mine, not his) for the U.S. That’s sensational. That’s newsworthy. That’s occupied Wall Street Journal readers’ attention for a week. That’s crap.

Happy 2009 to each of you! I sincerely hope that whatever your designs are on the year, that they come to fruition!

Jason