Investors Should Use Analogies With Caution

One of the common ways that investors make sense of events charged with chaos, such as the 2011 Middle Eastern crisis and Japanese crisis, is through analogy.  We compare a current event to a past event where we feel that we have a good grasp of the facts that served...

Initial Estimate of Japanese Quake Toll

This morning the Japanese government announced its initial estimate of the toll of the earthquake that struck almost two weeks ago.  At this point the maximum damage estimate is put at $309 billion (¥25 trillion).   Analysis: Per person in Japan the above...

Evidence of Social Strain in China

Yesterday the Chinese government in Beijing banned outdoor advertising (like billboards) that promotes, “hedonism, lavishness and the worship of foreign things.”  The ban also prevents ads that are considered vulgar and that encourage an aristocratic...

Two Year Anniversary of Market Low Call

Two years ago on March 12, 2009 I publicly called the March 9, 2009 U.S. financial market low.  I have wanted to update the performance of the financial markets over that two year period.  However, with the crises of the Middle East and Japan running rampant it seemed...

Yemen is Nearing Civil War

Yemen’s conflict  has largely fallen along the Muslim sectarian divide between Sunni and Shiite.  The forces, mostly armed police, loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh have clashed with the citizenry of Yemen all while the forces of the army looked on. ...