An observation

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 6, 2009 in Blog | 0 comments Have you noticed that when there is good news on unemployment that the financial markets soar? Have you noticed when there is bad news on unemployment the financial markets fall? While this correlation may seem obvious, there is an important implication. The news flow is mostly still about corporate profit reports, yet despite that, even bellwether firms (like Starbucks (see below)) are not...
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Juiced juice

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 6, 2009 in Blog | 0 comments Happy Friday! That all important indicator of consumer confidence is seeing increased demand for its juice: Starbucks. I do consider this to be a strong indicator that consumers are starting to put their toes back into the spending (flavored brown) waters. As each of you may know, I travel frequently and I have certainly noticed a fall off in Starbucks’ sales. If your average consumer...
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Up, up and away!?

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 5, 2009 in Blog | 3 comments Last week saw initial jobless claims fall 20,000 to a level of 512,000. The 512K is the lowest number of filings since January of this year. Remember that this data is always estimated (look at how round the figures are) and hence, very volatile. In fact, the data are constantly revised as proof rolls in to substantiate, or refute, assumptions. Consequently, the better way to look at this data...
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A private measure of unemployment is no better

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 4, 2009 in Blog | 0 comments Good morning everyone! ADP, processor of almost everyone’s pay check, has its own private data on unemployment. The number of jobs shed in October by their reckoning was 203,000. One of the primary differences in the ADP survey and the Bureau of Labor Statistic’s is that ADP only counts private sector jobs and ignores government jobs. What to watch out for: While the pace of the job...
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What is wrong with these people? revisited

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 3, 2009 in Blog | 0 comments The Wall Street Journal is reporting today that top executives of firms in the Standard & Poors 500 Index saw the value of their pensions rise 19% in 2008. Over 200 executives saw the value of their pensions increase over 50%. Meanwhile the average decline in the value of stock for these same firms was 37%. What is wrong with these people? I do disagree strongly with the assertion that stock...
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Update on Iranigans

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 3, 2009 in Blog | 0 comments Last week’s discussions over Iran’s nuclear program ended in an impasse. While Iran announced publicly it was ready to talk about concessions in the near future, that was exactly what the talks were about in the first place. This was a classic delaying tactic by Iran and utterly transparent. How do I know this? Well recall that opposing Iran are the United States and Israel. Israel...
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Manufacturing data improves

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Nov 2, 2009 in Blog | 1 comment During the month of October the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) index of manufacturing activity expanded to 55.7 from 52.6 in September. The way the index works is that any number above 50 indicates expansion. October’s reading was the highest manufacturing level since April of 2006. The director of the survey that provides the data for the manufacturing index said, “It appears...
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