How Well Does the Stock Market Discount? Dell as a Case Study

The deal to take U.S. computer maker Dell Inc. (DELL) private provides an answer to a question that initially occurred to me many years ago while working as a portfolio manager during the dot.com era. My idea was to check the stock market’s discounting abilities with a real world example. Put another way, I dreamed of looking at the market capitalization of a business over long periods of its...
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An Emotional Finance Approach to Fund Management: Telling the Right Investment “Story”

In a previous post, I distilled some of the valuable information about investment manager stress-coping mechanisms detailed in the Research Foundation of CFA Institute’s recent monograph, Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective, authored by David Tuckett and Richard J. Taffler. This first-of-its-kind publication contains many previously unexplored emotional aspects of fund management...
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CFA Institute asks: “What is the difference between investing and speculation?”

Jason Apollo Voss, CFA provides an answer to CFA Institute’s Inside Investing blog’s question: What is the difference between investing and speculation?


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Is the S&P 500 Mean Reverting? Rescaled Range Analysis Provides the Answer

Editor’s note: Thanks to the diligence of Armin Grueneich this post has been amended to reflect an additional step in the calculation of the rescaled range which has affected the prior reported results. In a previous post, I used the S&P 500 as an example to demonstrate the use of a sophisticated quantitative method, rescaled range analysis, for evaluating whether a time series is random,...
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Reframing the Gold Standard Debate: The Fixed-Money-Supply Standard

A debate between those advocating for a fiat money supply and those advocating for a gold standard has been raging for nearly a century. It’s time to reframe this debate in order to highlight some of the intrinsic properties of gold that are germane to this polemic and to inform the discussion of using gold as the philosophical basis for intelligent and prudent monetary policy. This much...
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Rescaled Range Analysis: A Method for Detecting Persistence, Randomness, or Mean Reversion in Financial Markets

Editor’s note: Thanks to the diligence of Armin Grueneich this post has been amended to reflect the addition of step #5, below, in the calculation of the rescaled range. Rescaled range analysis is a statistical technique designed to assess the nature and magnitude of variability in data over time. In investing rescaled range analysis has been used to detect and evaluate the amount of...
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An Emotional Finance Approach to Fund Management: Stress-Coping Mechanisms

In the recent Research Foundation of CFA Institute publication, Fund Management: An Emotional Finance Perspective, coauthors David Tuckett and Richard J. Taffler tell a compelling story about the myriad emotional stresses confronted by both analysts and portfolio managers. What they find stands in stark contrast to the world of perfectly rational decision making assumed by the efficient market...
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