How to Improve Lie Catching

  Here is a link to my favorite piece so far written as one of CFA Institute’s Content Directors: How to Improve Lie Catching, a summation of the lie detection research of Dr. Maria Hartwig and Dr. Charles F. Bond. I highly recommend a regular perusal of CFA Institute’s Enterprising Investor blog as many excellent investment pieces are featured there, including yours truly....
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Update on the State of Investing

  It has been several months since I have posted to my very own “What My Intuition Tells Me Now” blog.  Clearly that is a long absence.  However, I promise you that I did not abandon you and your interests.  My last guidance on the blog has held up until this point.  However, I now feel that an update on the state of investing is needed. Specifically it is my intuitive sense...
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Losing Money to Preserve Capitalism: Can We Afford to Continue Bailouts? (Part 2)

A review of modern banking system bailouts demonstrates a disrespect for the capitalist philosophy of the importance of losses for preserving both capital and capitalism. In modern economic history, the need for banking system bailouts spares no continent or class of nation; G-20 nations through emerging markets all feature prominently on the list (see table below). Furthermore, from 1974 to...
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Losing Money to Preserve Capitalism: Can We Afford to Continue Bailouts? (Part 1)

Modern capitalists take as gospel truth that capital losses serve as a signal to exit a market. Ideas or businesses that fail to compete in the market are abandoned in favor of those that can compete. In this way, not only is capital preserved, but also capitalism. This line of thinking is so familiar to market economics that it is easy to forget that it, like any idea, has to first be imagined,...
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Leadership Lesson for the Eurozone: The Rule of Small Groups

Beginning with psychologist George A. Miller’s seminal 1956 paper, The Magic Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information, scholars have consistently demonstrated that we human beings seem to have an upper limit to our ability to process information, especially within groups. For this reason, when it comes to group decision making, Miller argued, seven...
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Lie Detection: How Can Financial Analysts Improve Their Ability to Discern the Truth?

In the finance profession the ability to suss out the truth is of critical importance. From analysts needing to assess the veracity of statements by corporate management to private wealth managers needing to understand their clients’ actual financial motives, the ability to tell fact from fiction is highly prized. In “Why Do Lie-Catchers Fail: A Lens Model Meta-Analysis of Human Lie Judgments,”...
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The Potential European Debt Crisis You Are Not Hearing About

The European sovereign debt crisis has been occupying a disproportionate amount of investor mindshare over these past many months. Yet there is another potential debt crisis in Europe that is receiving almost no attention from financial analysts or the press. During the global real estate bubble €6,123 billion worth of mortgages were issued in Europe. Many of these borrowers are paid salaries or...
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