Payroll data indicate businesses playing better

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 5, 2010 in Blog, Worst of the Blog | 0 comments The month of April saw private sector jobs grow by 32,000 according to payroll giant ADP.  Economists had expected a gain of only 20,000.  What’s more, February to March employment data were revised to show an increase in employment of 19,000 from a decline of 23,000. Analysis: This is the first rock-solid employment report in the two years that the recession was strangling jobs.  We have...
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Protest in Slovakia

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 5, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments As predicted, the Greek debt crisis continues to send aftershocks throughout the global financial system.  I have detailed for you all of the ways in which the EU and IMF bailout could fail and regardless of success, could bring about the end of the EU. Yesterday in Slovakia its Prime Minister, Robert Fico, loudly protested the Greek bailout.  The right wing politician Fico is facing a...
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Increase in consumer spending

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 3, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments March consumer spending was up 0.6% from February.  Meanwhile, personal income was up only 0.3%. Analysis: It is good to see an increase in consumer spending since it makes up 70% of the U.S. economy.  One of the reasons that the recession has been as protracted as it has been is that consumers increased their savings during the recession.  This is an issue that I have been tracking for a year...
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The deal to save Greece

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 3, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments Over the weekend Greece, the International Monetary Fund and the European Union agreed to a bailout plan for the Greeks.  Here are some of the details: * The Greek government has agreed to new budget austerity measures.  The goal is to cut the national budget deficit from 13.6% of GDP in 2009 to less than 3.0% of GDP in 2014.  The cuts necessary to get the budget to this level are worth $40...
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Big trends

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on May 1, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments One of the best ways to make money as an investor is ye ole “top down” approach to investing.  Top down means that you begin with big macro-level trends and work your way down to identifying investments that potentially can benefit from these trends. Advantages of a top down approach include: * Being able to benefit from immutable trends that continually make money even in the face...
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Calling Europe

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Apr 30, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments Long time readers of this blog know that I have been highlighting the economic challenges of Europe since the beginning.  As I surveyed the worldwide economic landscape I saw that Europe had at least equal problems with its housing bubble and debt loads as the United States.  However, Europe also always has had slower economic growth; deep, deep structural impediments to growth; and a...
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First Quarter 2010 U.S. GDP Numbers Are In

Posted by Jason Apollo Voss on Apr 30, 2010 in Blog | 0 comments First quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was up at an annualized rate of 3.2%.  This compares to the economists’ consensus of up 3.3%.  As a reminder, fourth quarter GDP was up 5.6%. Analysis: Recall that GDP is composed as follows: Consumer spending + Investments by businesses + Government spending + Xports, net The first quarter numbers are encouraging.  In particular, the Consumer...
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