First Annual Retail Sales Preview

This is the first of what will become an annual feature of the “what my intuition tells me now” blog: a qualitative preview of retail sales figures.   The reason this preview comes in January, rather than December, is that most retailers report their...

What to invest in now

As long-term readers of this blog know, I consider it contrary to my purpose to give investment advice about specific investments.  My goal is your investment self-sufficiency.  That is one of the reasons that I tend to comment on macro-economic data – I feel...

Update of Fed/Congress prediction

  In my 2011 Predictions I said the following:   “Federal Reserve (monetary policy) – The Fed will continue to be impotent quantitatively having pulled all of their policy levers already.  Instead, the power of the Federal Reserve will be...

2011 predictions

This is the first of what will become a regular feature of the blog.  My intention is to put in electronic stone my sense of things as they are and will be.  Hopefully this provides actionable information for each of you.  It also neatly provides criteria by which you...

The qualitative Federal Reserve

Recall that the Federal Reserve announced a “quantitative easing” strategy earlier this month.  The idea was to inject $600 billion into the U.S. economy by buying outstanding bonds.  That, in turn, was supposed to create greater liquidity in the economy...