{"id":14222,"date":"2022-09-06T13:23:43","date_gmt":"2022-09-06T17:23:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/?p=14222"},"modified":"2025-09-05T14:06:29","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T20:06:29","slug":"key-scientific-paper-redux-are-you-for-real","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2022\/09\/06\/key-scientific-paper-redux-are-you-for-real\/","title":{"rendered":"Key Scientific Paper Redux \u2013 Are You for Real?"},"content":{"rendered":"

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”4.16″ global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”4.16″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||” theme_builder_area=”post_content”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text” _builder_version=”4.16″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat” global_colors_info=”{}” theme_builder_area=”post_content”]<\/p>\n

\n
<\/div>\n<\/figure>\n

Most investment professionals at one time or another find themselves sitting across from someone whose information they are reliant upon as authentic to make a decision. This could be an executive at a company in which we hope to make an investment. It could be a sell-side analyst. Or in private markets, it could be the owner of an asset in which we hope to make an investment. Whatever the milieu, being able to assess authenticity is key to trusting the information you receive.<\/span><\/p>\n

But what if it is the case that most of us are not good at evaluating authenticity, let along deception? That is the subject of the latest in our series of Key Scientific Paper Redux articles which distills the key insights of \u201cAre You for Real? Perceptions of Authenticity Are Systematically Biased and Not Accurate.\u201d[i]<\/a>\u00a0This paper is important because it reaffirms what we know at Deception And Truth Analysis (D.A.T.A.) to be true: people, even trained experts, are poor at deception detection.<\/span><\/p>\n

<\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

Are You for Real?<\/strong><\/em>: Study Details<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

First, the study\u2019s authors acknowledged the multi-decade research history demonstrating that people are very poor at deception detection (see our article on this very subject). Second, they postulate that lying is an extreme form of inauthenticity and that authenticity is likely even harder to detect than deception. Third, they also hypothesized that there would be asymmetries between self- and other-perceptions. Specifically, they believe that there is a positive correlation between rating yourself as authentic and rating others as authentic, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

Are You for Real?<\/em>\u00a0conducted three separate studies and uniquely, the study\u2019s authors used randomly assigned groups of people who did not know very much about one another. They then followed these groups for 6 weeks and surveyed them about their own authenticity and the authenticity of all other group members.<\/span><\/p>\n

Here are the details of the three studies:<\/span><\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Key assumption: All three studies have a critical belief embedded in their logic. Namely, that an individual\u2019s ratings of their own authenticity may be taken as ground truth.<\/span><\/li>\n
  2. Studies 1a and 1b sought to confirm people\u2019s beliefs about their abilities to detect authenticity. Study 1a was an online survey of beliefs answered by 140 people about their beliefs about authenticity detection capabilities. Study 1b was identical but the survey takers were MBA students and probably an interesting comparison can be made with investment professionals.<\/span><\/li>\n
  3. Study 2 examined both the accuracies and biases in authenticity detection. Those involved in the study numbered 207 and were MBA students rating themselves and others for authenticity. Total observations were 1,033.<\/span><\/li>\n
  4. Study 3, like study 2 also tested accuracy and biases in detecting authenticity, but also sought insights about how authentic people believe they come across to others. Total subjects in this study were 571 MBA students making 3,007 observations and conducted six months after Study 2.<\/span><\/li>\n
  5. To demonstrate that authenticity is a difficult thing to measure, the studies\u2019 authors had subjects take the Big 5 Personality Traits and rate their fellow group members on the same 5 categories.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    <\/strong><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

    Are You for Real?<\/strong><\/em>: Major Findings<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n
      \n
    1. Laypeople think they are good at detecting authenticity<\/strong>. Laypeople, with statistical significance, believe that they can detect authenticity, rating their abilities a 5.16 on a 7-point scale where a 7 meant \u201cI can tell when people are being real.\u201d<\/span><\/li>\n
    2. MBA students think they are good at detecting authenticity<\/strong>. MBA students, with statistical significance believe they can detect authenticity, rating their abilities a 5.44 on the same scale 7-point scale mentioned above. It is interesting to see that MBA students believe they have a greater capability than laypeople.<\/span><\/li>\n
    3. Laypeople rate authenticity as very important to them<\/strong>. Laypeople, on a 1-100 point scale, with 100 being highest, rated authenticity as being on average 78.24 in importance to themselves.<\/span><\/li>\n
    4. MBA students rate authenticity as being more important to them than laypeople believe it to be<\/strong>. MBA students rated authenticity as 85.60 in importance to themselves on the same 1-100 point scale.<\/span><\/li>\n
    5. MBA students are good at rating others\u2019 personality traits<\/strong>. In study 2, MBA students\u2019 self-ratings on the Big 5 Personality Traits positively and significantly predicted their ability at rating others for:<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n