{"id":14312,"date":"2023-07-20T14:59:53","date_gmt":"2023-07-20T18:59:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/?p=14312"},"modified":"2025-09-05T15:56:53","modified_gmt":"2025-09-05T21:56:53","slug":"case-study-carnival-cruise-lines","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2023\/07\/20\/case-study-carnival-cruise-lines\/","title":{"rendered":"Case Study: Carnival Cruise Lines"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>[et_pb_section fb_built=&#8221;1&#8243; admin_label=&#8221;section&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_row admin_label=&#8221;row&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_column type=&#8221;4_4&#8243; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; custom_padding=&#8221;|||&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; custom_padding__hover=&#8221;|||&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;][et_pb_text admin_label=&#8221;Text&#8221; _builder_version=&#8221;4.16&#8243; background_size=&#8221;initial&#8221; background_position=&#8221;top_left&#8221; background_repeat=&#8221;repeat&#8221; global_colors_info=&#8221;{}&#8221; theme_builder_area=&#8221;post_content&#8221;]<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">One use case that Deception And Truth Analysis\u2019(D.A.T.A.) investment management Clients frequently discuss is how to better combat greenwashing. In this week\u2019s article we share a case study assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines (ticker: CCL) by comparing and contrasting the ESG reports from\u00a0<a class=\"x-el x-el-a c2-2w c2-2x c2-66 c2-v c2-w c2-x c2-j c2-67 c2-3 c2-30 c2-31 c2-11 c2-32\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sustainalytics.com\/esg-rating\/carnival-corp\/1008137069\" rel=\"\">Sustainalytics<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"x-el x-el-a c2-2w c2-2x c2-66 c2-v c2-w c2-x c2-j c2-67 c2-3 c2-30 c2-31 c2-11 c2-32\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/stocks\/NYSE\/CCL\/sustainability\/\" rel=\"\">MarketBeat<\/a>, with D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment of Carnival Cruise Line\u2019s 10(k) reports for the last several years. Sneak preview: we provide an independent Governance assessment that calls into question aspects of CCL&#8217;s sustainability efforts. This is because our work is grounded in science and provides an objective check on the ESG claims of companies that is independent from other such assessments. Further, measuring management behavior leads to a greater ability to predict future business outcomes since those behaviors drive management&#8217;s choices.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\"><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<h3 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">ESG Ratings\u2019 Weakest Factor: Governance<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Our co-Founder, Jason Voss, has helped to craft the global sustainability accounting standards through his service to the International Integrated Reporting Council, the Value Reporting Foundation, and now advising the International Sustainable Standards Board through his work on the Integrated Reporting Connectivity Council. His opinion is that of the three core components of ESG, that the \u2018G\u2019 factor, or governance, is the least evolved.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Governance ratings typically are just a checklist of key issues that companies must adhere to in order to get a pass. For example, number of insiders on the board, diversity of the C-suite, whether the board has staggered elections, and so on. Unfortunately, companies are well aware of the key issues that lead to a good governance rating and most meet these standards. What is missing is an objective way of evaluating a company\u2019s governance, as well as a way that is predictive of future outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Measuring a company\u2019s deceptiveness and truthfulness as D.A.T.A. does is based on more than one hundred years of deception science, so it is objective. Furthermore, because business outcomes are driven by management\u2019s choices, and in turn those choices are driven by management\u2019s behaviors, by measuring their deceptiveness and truthfulness is predictive of future outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\"><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<h3 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Independent ESG Ratings of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">There are many different independent companies that issue ESG ratings, including Sustainalytics and MarketBeat. Both raters offer insights into the risks faced by companies, but MarketBeat in its publicly available product also provides an assessment of the positive impacts of a company.<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Sustainalytics\u2019 Carnival Cruise Lines Rating<\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">CCL is rated by Sustainalytics as having Medium Risk, or 24.9 on a scale that ranges between Negligible (0 &#8211; 10) to Severe (40+). Within its industry, Consumer Services, CCL is ranked as 217 out of 494 companies. In Sustainalytics\u2019 Global Universe CCL is ranked 7,450 out of 15,636 companies.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Additionally, Sustainalytics assesses CCL as having Medium Exposure to material ESG issues. Next, the company assesses CCL\u2019s management as Average in its ability to manage relevant ESG issues. Last, CCL\u2019s Top 3 Material ESG issues are considered to be: 1) emissions, effluents, &amp; waste; 2) product governance; and 3) carbon.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\"><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">MarketBeat\u2019s Carnival Cruise Lines Rating<\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">CCL has a net Impact Ratio of +31.0% according to MarketBeat. This score is the net of positive impacts (up to +100%) less negative impacts (down to -100%). In other words, MarketBeat rates CCL as having a net positive impact. Further, positive value is created by CCL in MarketBeat\u2019s Sustainability Data via Taxes, Jobs, and Societal Infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">MarketBeat rates CCL as having a +7.33 Net Impact in its Society category; -1.13 in its Knowledge category; +0.71 in its Health category; and -4.53 in its Environment category. In particular, CCL is docked by MarketBeat for its lack of knowledge workers in its workforce, and especially in its greenhouse gas emissions.<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\"><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<h3 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Deception And Truth Analysis of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Before discussing D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment of CCL, we want to point out that neither Sustainalytics, nor MarketBeat provide a detailed assessment of the company\u2019s Governance. In fact, most of the analysis is about CCL\u2019s environmental impact.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Yet, we would argue that Governance is actually the most important of the three ESG factors. Why? Because if a company\u2019s governance is lax then you cannot trust management to manage its E or S factors well. Additionally, at D.A.T.A. we consider a company\u2019s truthfulness to be an outstanding measurement of overall governance. After all, if someone is, on average, strongly truthful then they are likely to be more transparent about all factors relating to the company, including the environment and social parts of ESG.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Deception And Truth Analysis Summary Statistics<\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">What follows is a summary of Deception And Truth Analysis\u2019 assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines\u2019 2021 and 2022 10(k) annual reports:<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\n<div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"Carnival Cruise Lines - D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%20-%20DATA%20Assessment%20of%2010-.jpg\/:\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"Carnival Cruise Lines - D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Carnival Cruise Lines &#8211; D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Deception And Truth Analysis Assessment Summary<\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">D.A.T.A.\u2019s primary output is our DATA Score. It ranges between -100% and +100%, with any negative score indicative of a document\u2019s aggregate level of deceptiveness, and any positive score indicative of a document\u2019s aggregate level of truthfulness. DATA Scores at the time of this writing have a mean score of 6.02% and a standard deviation of 13.88%.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Carnival Cruise Lines\u2019 10(k)s both score in the aggregate as truthful with the 2021 document being 1.5 standard deviations above the mean and the 2022 document being 0.9 standard deviations above the mean. In other words, the company is above average truthful. That said, CCL\u2019s truthfulness declined by 8.69 percentage points relative to 2021 levels.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Continuing on, the amount of deception sections in the CCL 10(k) has nearly doubled from 13.64% in 2021 to 25.93% in 2022. Additionally, the average DATA Score of CCL\u2019s deceptive sections has worsened by almost 100% from -7.81% in 2021 to -14.11%.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Looking at the truthful fragments also reveals an interesting story. Truthful fragments have of course fallen in 2022 relative to 2021 since the number of deceptive fragments increased year on year. Interestingly, while the percentage of the document that is truthful has fallen, when the company is being truthful the average DATA Score is roughly the same in 2022 as in 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">We note with great interest that the number of pages of the 10(k) has increased by sixteen pages year on year. In other words, CCL is disclosing more information, but it is deceiving more, too. A natural question to ask is: what has changed year on year such that CCL is deceiving more, and when they are deceiving it is more deceptive? D.A.T.A.\u2019s REDline product is a perfect solution to dig deeper because we show the running narrative of deceptiveness and truthfulness through documents.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\"><\/u><\/span><\/p>\n<h4><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">DATAREDline Assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Here is a screenshot of CCL\u2019s 2021 10(k):<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\n<div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"2021 CCL Annual Report\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/2021%20Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%2010-K.png\/:\/cr=t:0%25,l:0%25,w:100%25,h:100%25\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"2021 CCL Annual Report\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">2021 CCL Annual Report<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">For convenience we have selected CCL\u2019s most deceptive fragment. You can verify that by looking at the REDline graph in the center of the image (i.e. the part of the picture with the green, yellow, and orange bars). On the left hand side of the picture is the language associated with their most deceptive fragment.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">As you can see from the above excerpt, the company is discussing its risk factors. Specifically, this fragment, assessed by D.A.T.A. as their most deceptive concerns the company\u2019s response to COVID-19, as well as risks to the company because of its capital structure, and its maintenance covenants.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">By contrast, here is a screenshot of CCL\u2019s 2022 10(k):<\/span><\/p>\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\n<div>\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"2022 CCL Annual Report\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/2022%20Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%2010-K.png\/:\/cr=t:0%25,l:0%25,w:100%25,h:100%25\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"2022 CCL Annual Report\" \/><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">2022 CCL Annual Report<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">One thing that immediately jumps out is the higher number of deceptive fragments in 2022 as compared with 2021. Those are the yellow, orange, and green bars shown to the right of the 10-K. There is one repeat fragment from last year\u2019s 10(k). Namely, CCL\u2019s capital structure being too debt heavy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">For convenience we have highlighted the most deceptive fragment\u2019s text in the picture above, which appears on the left side of the image. Once again the most deceptive fragment falls in the midst of CCL\u2019s risk factors disclosures. Interestingly, though, the risk factor that is at the center of D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment is all about their climate risks and disclosures. This is a significant change from the year prior.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Here\u2019s the thing, though, all of those additional deceptive fragments (as indicated by the yellow and orange bars) year over year are new to their 10(k) reporting, and they have to do with CCL\u2019s disclosures in its 10(k) of its: Sustainability efforts; reporting of its carbon footprint; governance structure; narrative around the US\u2019 Clean Water Act; and risk from failing to achieve its sustainability related goals. Let\u2019s give CCL credit for the additional climate-related disclosures.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">But, it is a reasonable conclusion then that CCL is disclosing more information, but it is not being transparent since their disclosures have doubled the company\u2019s level of deceptiveness in its 10(k). This is a lesson that those in finance and investing are well-acquainted with:\u00a0<strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">disclosure and transparency are not the same thing<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">An analyst assessing the ESG efforts of CCL can reasonably conclude that they are being deceptive about their sustainability initiatives. This should also then lead to analysts questioning the \u2018environment\u2019 portion of the company\u2019s ESG. But it should also lead to a more important realization: the company\u2019s \u2018governance\u2019 portion of ESG has gotten worse.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h3 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">What Should an Investor Do with DATA\u2019s CCL Assessment?<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">In short, based on the above analysis, an investor should call CCL\u2019s investor relations department and ask additional and deeper questions about the company\u2019s governance structure since its disclosure around their policies was flagged by D.A.T.A. For example, what are the checks and balances that ensure good governance? What power, resources, and authority does the board have in examining and enforcing CCL\u2019s governance? Another good question would be how does the board and how do auditors check the company\u2019s governance quality?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">But wait, there\u2019s more! Beyond asking CCL about its governance, most of its deceptive fragments had to do with their sustainability disclosures. That they are being deceptive about this warrants additional questions. Immediate questions that could be asked would be about how the company measures progress on its sustainability goals? How has measurement changed over time; including have the data sources or providers changed? Are the number of factors tracked static, or have they changed? Another good question might be how much of managements\u2019 time is spent on managing sustainability issues? Does management compensation include incentives to improve sustainability? Is the company\u2019s sustainability progress audited independently?<\/span><\/p>\n<div>\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\"><\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\n<h3 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Conclusion<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n<\/div>\n<p><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Governance is the least evolved, but most important of the ESG factors. After all, if governance is poor can you really trust a company&#8217;s disclosures about its environmental and social impacts? A critical way to measure governance is to have a scientific and objective method for assessing a company&#8217;s deceptiveness and truthfulness, such as that provided by Deception And Truth Analysis. When assessing Carnival Cruise Lines, D.A.T.A. finds that it is deceptive about its Sustainability standards, calling into question its governance, as well as its environmental impact management.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column][\/et_pb_row][\/et_pb_section]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>One use case that Deception And Truth Analysis\u2019(D.A.T.A.) investment management Clients frequently discuss is how to better combat greenwashing. In this week\u2019s article we share a case study assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines (ticker: CCL) by comparing and contrasting the ESG reports from\u00a0Sustainalytics\u00a0and\u00a0MarketBeat, with D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment of Carnival Cruise Line\u2019s 10(k) reports for the last [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":14313,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"<img src=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Carnival-Cruise-Lines.png\" \/>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><em>By Jason A. Voss, CFA<\/em><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">One use case that Deception And Truth Analysis\u2019(D.A.T.A.) investment management Clients frequently discuss is how to better combat greenwashing. In this week\u2019s article we share a case study assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines (ticker: CCL) by comparing and contrasting the ESG reports from\u00a0<a class=\"x-el x-el-a c2-2w c2-2x c2-66 c2-v c2-w c2-x c2-j c2-67 c2-3 c2-30 c2-31 c2-11 c2-32\" href=\"https:\/\/www.sustainalytics.com\/esg-rating\/carnival-corp\/1008137069\" rel=\"\">Sustainalytics<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a class=\"x-el x-el-a c2-2w c2-2x c2-66 c2-v c2-w c2-x c2-j c2-67 c2-3 c2-30 c2-31 c2-11 c2-32\" href=\"https:\/\/www.marketbeat.com\/stocks\/NYSE\/CCL\/sustainability\/\" rel=\"\">MarketBeat<\/a>, with D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment of Carnival Cruise Line\u2019s 10(k) reports for the last several years. Sneak preview: we provide an independent Governance assessment that calls into question aspects of CCL's sustainability efforts. This is because our work is grounded in science and provides an objective check on the ESG claims of companies that is independent from other such assessments. Further, measuring management behavior leads to a greater ability to predict future business outcomes since those behaviors drive management's choices.<\/span>\r\n<div>\r\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">ESG Ratings\u2019 Weakest Factor: Governance<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Our co-Founder, Jason Voss, has helped to craft the global sustainability accounting standards through his service to the International Integrated Reporting Council, the Value Reporting Foundation, and now advising the International Sustainable Standards Board through his work on the Integrated Reporting Connectivity Council. His opinion is that of the three core components of ESG, that the \u2018G\u2019 factor, or governance, is the least evolved.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Governance ratings typically are just a checklist of key issues that companies must adhere to in order to get a pass. For example, number of insiders on the board, diversity of the C-suite, whether the board has staggered elections, and so on. Unfortunately, companies are well aware of the key issues that lead to a good governance rating and most meet these standards. What is missing is an objective way of evaluating a company\u2019s governance, as well as a way that is predictive of future outcomes.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Measuring a company\u2019s deceptiveness and truthfulness as D.A.T.A. does is based on more than one hundred years of deception science, so it is objective. Furthermore, because business outcomes are driven by management\u2019s choices, and in turn those choices are driven by management\u2019s behaviors, by measuring their deceptiveness and truthfulness is predictive of future outcomes.<\/span>\r\n<div>\r\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Independent ESG Ratings of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">There are many different independent companies that issue ESG ratings, including Sustainalytics and MarketBeat. Both raters offer insights into the risks faced by companies, but MarketBeat in its publicly available product also provides an assessment of the positive impacts of a company.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Sustainalytics\u2019 Carnival Cruise Lines Rating<\/u><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">CCL is rated by Sustainalytics as having Medium Risk, or 24.9 on a scale that ranges between Negligible (0 - 10) to Severe (40+). Within its industry, Consumer Services, CCL is ranked as 217 out of 494 companies. In Sustainalytics\u2019 Global Universe CCL is ranked 7,450 out of 15,636 companies.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Additionally, Sustainalytics assesses CCL as having Medium Exposure to material ESG issues. Next, the company assesses CCL\u2019s management as Average in its ability to manage relevant ESG issues. Last, CCL\u2019s Top 3 Material ESG issues are considered to be: 1) emissions, effluents, &amp; waste; 2) product governance; and 3) carbon.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">MarketBeat\u2019s Carnival Cruise Lines Rating<\/u><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">CCL has a net Impact Ratio of +31.0% according to MarketBeat. This score is the net of positive impacts (up to +100%) less negative impacts (down to -100%). In other words, MarketBeat rates CCL as having a net positive impact. Further, positive value is created by CCL in MarketBeat\u2019s Sustainability Data via Taxes, Jobs, and Societal Infrastructure.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">MarketBeat rates CCL as having a +7.33 Net Impact in its Society category; -1.13 in its Knowledge category; +0.71 in its Health category; and -4.53 in its Environment category. In particular, CCL is docked by MarketBeat for its lack of knowledge workers in its workforce, and especially in its greenhouse gas emissions.<\/span>\r\n<div>\r\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Deception And Truth Analysis of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Before discussing D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment of CCL, we want to point out that neither Sustainalytics, nor MarketBeat provide a detailed assessment of the company\u2019s Governance. In fact, most of the analysis is about CCL\u2019s environmental impact.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Yet, we would argue that Governance is actually the most important of the three ESG factors. Why? Because if a company\u2019s governance is lax then you cannot trust management to manage its E or S factors well. Additionally, at D.A.T.A. we consider a company\u2019s truthfulness to be an outstanding measurement of overall governance. After all, if someone is, on average, strongly truthful then they are likely to be more transparent about all factors relating to the company, including the environment and social parts of ESG.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Deception And Truth Analysis Summary Statistics<\/u><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">What follows is a summary of Deception And Truth Analysis\u2019 assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines\u2019 2021 and 2022 10(k) annual reports:<\/span>\r\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"Carnival Cruise Lines - D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%20-%20DATA%20Assessment%20of%2010-.jpg\/:\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"Carnival Cruise Lines - D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022\" \/><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Carnival Cruise Lines - D.A.T.A. Assessment of 10(k)s 2021 &amp; 2022<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">Deception And Truth Analysis Assessment Summary<\/u><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">D.A.T.A.\u2019s primary output is our DATA Score. It ranges between -100% and +100%, with any negative score indicative of a document\u2019s aggregate level of deceptiveness, and any positive score indicative of a document\u2019s aggregate level of truthfulness. DATA Scores at the time of this writing have a mean score of 6.02% and a standard deviation of 13.88%.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Carnival Cruise Lines\u2019 10(k)s both score in the aggregate as truthful with the 2021 document being 1.5 standard deviations above the mean and the 2022 document being 0.9 standard deviations above the mean. In other words, the company is above average truthful. That said, CCL\u2019s truthfulness declined by 8.69 percentage points relative to 2021 levels.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Continuing on, the amount of deception sections in the CCL 10(k) has nearly doubled from 13.64% in 2021 to 25.93% in 2022. Additionally, the average DATA Score of CCL\u2019s deceptive sections has worsened by almost 100% from -7.81% in 2021 to -14.11%.\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Looking at the truthful fragments also reveals an interesting story. Truthful fragments have of course fallen in 2022 relative to 2021 since the number of deceptive fragments increased year on year. Interestingly, while the percentage of the document that is truthful has fallen, when the company is being truthful the average DATA Score is roughly the same in 2022 as in 2021.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">We note with great interest that the number of pages of the 10(k) has increased by sixteen pages year on year. In other words, CCL is disclosing more information, but it is deceiving more, too. A natural question to ask is: what has changed year on year such that CCL is deceiving more, and when they are deceiving it is more deceptive? D.A.T.A.\u2019s REDline product is a perfect solution to dig deeper because we show the running narrative of deceptiveness and truthfulness through documents.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><u class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-31 c2-63 c2-66\">DATAREDline Assessment of Carnival Cruise Lines<\/u><\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Here is a screenshot of CCL\u2019s 2021 10(k):<\/span>\r\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"2021 CCL Annual Report\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/2021%20Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%2010-K.png\/:\/cr=t:0%25,l:0%25,w:100%25,h:100%25\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"2021 CCL Annual Report\" \/><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">2021 CCL Annual Report<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">For convenience we have selected CCL\u2019s most deceptive fragment. You can verify that by looking at the REDline graph in the center of the image (i.e. the part of the picture with the green, yellow, and orange bars). On the left hand side of the picture is the language associated with their most deceptive fragment.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">As you can see from the above excerpt, the company is discussing its risk factors. Specifically, this fragment, assessed by D.A.T.A. as their most deceptive concerns the company\u2019s response to COVID-19, as well as risks to the company because of its capital structure, and its maintenance covenants.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">By contrast, here is a screenshot of CCL\u2019s 2022 10(k):<\/span>\r\n<figure class=\"x-el x-el-figure c2-1 c2-2 c2-3x c2-i c2-h c2-21 c2-2c c2-29 c2-2a c2-5i c2-4v c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\">\r\n<div>\r\n<div><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><img class=\"x-el x-el-img c2-1 c2-2 c2-k c2-21 c2-1x c2-1y c2-29 c2-2b c2-s c2-6a c2-4f c2-3 c2-4 c2-5 c2-6 c2-7 c2-8\" title=\"2022 CCL Annual Report\" src=\"https:\/\/img1.wsimg.com\/isteam\/ip\/b4167b12-c211-4a45-9c4b-489be14138f8\/2022%20Carnival%20Cruise%20Lines%2010-K.png\/:\/cr=t:0%25,l:0%25,w:100%25,h:100%25\/rs=w:1280\" alt=\"2022 CCL Annual Report\" \/><\/span><\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<figcaption class=\"x-el x-el-figcaption c2-1 c2-2 c2-v c2-w c2-3d c2-29 c2-2b c2-49 c2-6b c2-6c c2-6d c2-6e c2-3 c2-6f c2-3e c2-10 c2-3f c2-3g c2-3h c2-3i\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\">2022 CCL Annual Report<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">\u00a0\u00a0<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">One thing that immediately jumps out is the higher number of deceptive fragments in 2022 as compared with 2021. Those are the yellow, orange, and green bars shown to the right of the 10-K. There is one repeat fragment from last year\u2019s 10(k). Namely, CCL\u2019s capital structure being too debt heavy.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">For convenience we have highlighted the most deceptive fragment\u2019s text in the picture above, which appears on the left side of the image. Once again the most deceptive fragment falls in the midst of CCL\u2019s risk factors disclosures. Interestingly, though, the risk factor that is at the center of D.A.T.A.\u2019s assessment is all about their climate risks and disclosures. This is a significant change from the year prior.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Here\u2019s the thing, though, all of those additional deceptive fragments (as indicated by the yellow and orange bars) year over year are new to their 10(k) reporting, and they have to do with CCL\u2019s disclosures in its 10(k) of its: Sustainability efforts; reporting of its carbon footprint; governance structure; narrative around the US\u2019 Clean Water Act; and risk from failing to achieve its sustainability related goals. Let\u2019s give CCL credit for the additional climate-related disclosures.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">But, it is a reasonable conclusion then that CCL is disclosing more information, but it is not being transparent since their disclosures have doubled the company\u2019s level of deceptiveness in its 10(k). This is a lesson that those in finance and investing are well-acquainted with:\u00a0<strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">disclosure and transparency are not the same thing<\/strong>.<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">An analyst assessing the ESG efforts of CCL can reasonably conclude that they are being deceptive about their sustainability initiatives. This should also then lead to analysts questioning the \u2018environment\u2019 portion of the company\u2019s ESG. But it should also lead to a more important realization: the company\u2019s \u2018governance\u2019 portion of ESG has gotten worse.<\/span>\r\n<div>\r\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">What Should an Investor Do with DATA\u2019s CCL Assessment?<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">In short, based on the above analysis, an investor should call CCL\u2019s investor relations department and ask additional and deeper questions about the company\u2019s governance structure since its disclosure around their policies was flagged by D.A.T.A. For example, what are the checks and balances that ensure good governance? What power, resources, and authority does the board have in examining and enforcing CCL\u2019s governance? Another good question would be how does the board and how do auditors check the company\u2019s governance quality?<\/span>\r\n\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">But wait, there\u2019s more! Beyond asking CCL about its governance, most of its deceptive fragments had to do with their sustainability disclosures. That they are being deceptive about this warrants additional questions. Immediate questions that could be asked would be about how the company measures progress on its sustainability goals? How has measurement changed over time; including have the data sources or providers changed? Are the number of factors tracked static, or have they changed? Another good question might be how much of managements\u2019 time is spent on managing sustainability issues? Does management compensation include incentives to improve sustainability? Is the company\u2019s sustainability progress audited independently?<\/span>\r\n<div>\r\n<h4 class=\"x-el x-el-h4 c2-68 c2-69 c2-v c2-w c2-42 c2-2c c2-2a c2-29 c2-2b c2-3 c2-z c2-44 c2-10 c2-45 c2-46 c2-47 c2-48\"><span style=\"font-family: futural;\"><strong class=\"x-el x-el-span c2-2w c2-2x c2-3 c2-62 c2-13 c2-3v c2-63\">Conclusion<\/strong><\/span><\/h4>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<span style=\"font-family: futural;\">Governance is the least evolved, but most important of the ESG factors. After all, if governance is poor can you really trust a company's disclosures about its environmental and social impacts? A critical way to measure governance is to have a scientific and objective method for assessing a company's deceptiveness and truthfulness, such as that provided by Deception And Truth Analysis. When assessing Carnival Cruise Lines, D.A.T.A. finds that it is deceptive about its Sustainability standards, calling into question its governance, as well as its environmental impact management.<\/span>","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3,465],"tags":[454,211,456],"class_list":["post-14312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-the-blog","category-d-a-t-a","tag-case-studies","tag-esg","tag-greenwashing"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14312","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14312"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14312\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/14313"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14312"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14312"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14312"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}