{"id":2394,"date":"2010-11-24T07:14:57","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T14:14:57","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2394"},"modified":"2018-08-17T08:56:54","modified_gmt":"2018-08-17T12:56:54","slug":"the-tottering-point","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/11\/24\/the-tottering-point\/","title":{"rendered":"The tottering point"},"content":{"rendered":"

You may have heard of the famous book, “The Tipping Point.”\u00a0 The title is so perfect, that even for folks who haven’t read the book, they understand the point of the book immediately.\u00a0 That is, there are many things in life that are in one realm, yet approaching a boundary.\u00a0 Across that boundary lies change.\u00a0 This place between one state and the next is the “tipping point.”\u00a0 So where are we now with the economic recovery?\u00a0 Where are we now with the financial markets?<\/span><\/p>\n

I would argue that we are at “the tottering point.”<\/span><\/p>\n

The state of things is that the U.S. economy, and other major economies like China’s, Germany’s, the United Kingdom’s, and many others, are all posting improved economic statistics.\u00a0 Yet, despite this, the weight of the data have not been enough to reach a tipping point.\u00a0 Instead there are financial market rallies, followed by retreats.\u00a0 So here we totter.\u00a0 Back and forth we have gone with some progress, but not enough.\u00a0 This is another way of saying that investors are still primarily focused on their worries and not on their opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n

This is evidenced by the ease with which the Irish debt “crisis” was able to undo the momentum that had been building in the financial markets.\u00a0 The Irish\u00a0situation was\u00a0treated, not with careful analysis, but with fear.\u00a0 Because earlier in the year the legitimate Greek crisis had spooked investors, the Irish were lumped into the same category without scrutinizing the comparison.\u00a0 To me this is evidence of an investment community focused on worries, not opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another worry, and a more legitimate one, is the continued lack of improvement in the unemployment rate in the United States.\u00a0 However, this too is likely to show gradual improvement.\u00a0 Investors must know this intellectually and intuitively.\u00a0 Businesses and their employees are out there trying to earn greater profits, trying to innovate, and trying to grow.\u00a0 Enough will succeed to improve the employment situation.\u00a0 But this is the long-view; the 18 month view.\u00a0 Yet\u00a0fears are more predominate right now.\u00a0 So eyes are focused on the right now<\/span>.\u00a0 That is evidence of a “tottering point.”<\/span><\/p>\n

Investment is an activity that\u00a0relies on a focus on\u00a0the future.\u00a0 When eyes are not looking forward, but instead, are looking down and around, forward progress is difficult as worries trump opportunities.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, change is inevitable; as is, the positive change brought on by hard-working, intelligent people.\u00a0 My belief is that by the end of the retail fourth quarter, the end of January, investors will be focusing on opportunity more than worry.\u00a0 That will be the tipping point.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

You may have heard of the famous book, “The Tipping Point.”\u00a0 The title is so perfect, that even for folks who haven’t read the book, they understand the point of the book immediately.\u00a0 That is, there are many things in life that are in one realm, yet approaching a boundary.\u00a0 Across that boundary lies change.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2394","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2394","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2394"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2394\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2394"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2394"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2394"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}