{"id":2396,"date":"2010-11-24T07:30:15","date_gmt":"2010-11-24T14:30:15","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2396"},"modified":"2018-08-17T08:56:18","modified_gmt":"2018-08-17T12:56:18","slug":"an-important-jobless-claims-milestone","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/11\/24\/an-important-jobless-claims-milestone\/","title":{"rendered":"An important jobless claims milestone"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">This morning initial jobless claims data were released by the U.S. Department of Labor.\u00a0 The figures were: initial claims fell by 34,000 to 407,000 &#8211; this is the lowest level recorded since July 2008.\u00a0 The four-week moving average for the figure was down 7,500 to 443,500.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Analysis:<\/strong> Clearly an important milestone has been reached in the jobless claims data.\u00a0 Despite the fact that jobless claims reached their lowest level since July 2008, the four-week moving average shows only a small improvement.\u00a0 In these moments of uncertainty, when the data don&#8217;t affirm\/disaffirm a particular direction\u00a0then intuition is needed to assess the reality on the ground.\u00a0 This is, and has been a part of my analysis for my entire career.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">My intuition right now is that the ice has begun to thaw in the unemployment arena.\u00a0 In the past when we have seen an improvement in the jobless claims data\u00a0I have not called an end to the freeze.\u00a0 Instead I have emphasized the fact that these data can show an improvement, yet counter-intellectually, actually represent a worsening situation.\u00a0 That is because jobless claims are sometimes not filed by those who are completely discouraged.\u00a0 Thus, you can sometimes see a decline in the data that more represents defeat, than success.\u00a0 My belief is that is <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">not<\/span><\/strong> what is happening right now.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Remember in October that the U.S. business sector added 151,000 jobs.\u00a0 Now the initial jobless claims are following with stable, calm, undramatic numbers.\u00a0 This is a good sign.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">It is also my belief that the all important retail business fourth quarter, ending at the close of January, will show a more confident, if not spend-thrift consumer.\u00a0 That should give businesses the momentum and confidence necessary to begin hiring.\u00a0 And that hiring will likely be at a pace that will finally start to\u00a0lead to a gradual improvement in the unemployment rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Importance grade:<\/strong> 10; there still is no more important economic statistic than the U.S.\u00a0initial jobless claims and the unemployment rate.\u00a0 Jobless claims, good: unemployment rate, flat.\u00a0 I feel a transition is underway, though.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning initial jobless claims data were released by the U.S. Department of Labor.\u00a0 The figures were: initial claims fell by 34,000 to 407,000 &#8211; this is the lowest level recorded since July 2008.\u00a0 The four-week moving average for the figure was down 7,500 to 443,500. Analysis: Clearly an important milestone has been reached in [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2396","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2396\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}