{"id":2410,"date":"2010-12-01T08:05:26","date_gmt":"2010-12-01T15:05:26","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2410"},"modified":"2018-08-17T08:53:26","modified_gmt":"2018-08-17T12:53:26","slug":"job-situation-improves","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/12\/01\/job-situation-improves\/","title":{"rendered":"Job situation improves"},"content":{"rendered":"

There are two major sources of jobs data in the United States: the\u00a0Bureau of Labor Statistics\u00a0and Automatic Data Processing.\u00a0 ADP is the country’s largest payroll processing firm so clearly it has its finger on the pulse of the U.S. jobs situation.\u00a0 There are two things to pay attention to in both sets of data, the absolute level of jobs and the trend.\u00a0 Because the data are often revised many times, the absolute level of jobs is often unreliable.\u00a0 But\u00a0a careful comparison of both sets of data provides insight into the\u00a0underlying trend\u00a0in job creation.<\/span><\/p>\n

So this morning ADP reported that:<\/span><\/p>\n

1.\u00a0 The private sector added 93,000 jobs in November, the largest monthly gain in three years.\u00a0 Economists had expected an increase of just 70,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

2.\u00a0 October’s job creation figure was revised upward to 82,000 from an initially reported 43,000.\u00a0 Proof of the point I made above about revisions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis:<\/strong>\u00a0 Clearly the trend here is that the private sector is creating jobs of significant magnitude – logging the best results since 2007.\u00a0 Need I\u00a0remind everyone that 2007 was in the heart of the BUBBLE?<\/span><\/p>\n

While the absolute number of jobs created is exciting, look at the trend from October’s up 82,000 to November’s figure of 93,000 jobs created.\u00a0 That is an acceleration in job creation.\u00a0 Fantastic!\u00a0 So not only are the absolute numbers showing buoyancy, the trend is accelerating.\u00a0 This is highly encouraging.<\/span><\/p>\n

Another thing of import is that the revision of October’s numbers is shockingly high.\u00a0 Almost a 100% upward revision.\u00a0 Because ADP primarily processes payrolls for larger U.S. companies for its estimates to be off means that the job creation is not coming from the large businesses that they serve.\u00a0 Instead it is my speculation that the job creation is coming from smaller firms that fall outside of their exact data purview.\u00a0 So the data are also likely an indication of a return to health of that most robust portion of the U.S. economy: small businesses.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importance grade:<\/strong> 10; because of the magnitude of change in the absolute numbers of private sector job creation, as well as the acceleration of the trend, these data are highly significant.\u00a0 Let’s hope that the job creation we are seeing is not just holiday season temporary hiring, and is, in fact, permanent job creation.\u00a0 My own intuitive hunch is that about half of these jobs are of the long-term employment sort.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

There are two major sources of jobs data in the United States: the\u00a0Bureau of Labor Statistics\u00a0and Automatic Data Processing.\u00a0 ADP is the country’s largest payroll processing firm so clearly it has its finger on the pulse of the U.S. jobs situation.\u00a0 There are two things to pay attention to in both sets of data, the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2410","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2410","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2410"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2410\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2410"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2410"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2410"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}