{"id":2417,"date":"2010-12-03T07:00:38","date_gmt":"2010-12-03T14:00:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2417"},"modified":"2018-08-17T08:51:39","modified_gmt":"2018-08-17T12:51:39","slug":"job-creation-in-november-disappoints-but","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/12\/03\/job-creation-in-november-disappoints-but\/","title":{"rendered":"Job creation in November disappoints, but…"},"content":{"rendered":"

Expect a big stock market down draft today.<\/span><\/p>\n

November’s non-farm payrolls\u00a0(i.e. job creation) figures are in and the U.S. economy created 39,000 jobs.\u00a0 This compares to a consensus expectation from economists of 144,000 jobs created.\u00a0 Meanwhile, October’s job creation figures were revised upward to 172,000 jobs from the earlier reported 151,000.<\/span><\/p>\n

Meanwhile, the unemployment rose to 9.8% from its previous level of 9.6%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis:<\/strong> Expect investors today to overwhelmingly focus on the “big” miss in jobs for November.\u00a0 Clearly, as an investor you would like to see big job creation to move the U.S. unemployment rate in the downward direction.\u00a0 However, the economy still did<\/span> net, create jobs.\u00a0 Additionally, each of the previous several months have seen upward revisions to their figures, regardless of the data survey.\u00a0 So what I am saying is that expect these November numbers to be revised upward, too.<\/span><\/p>\n

So if the economy created jobs, then why did the unemployment rate go up?\u00a0 There can be many sources for this counter-intuitive result.\u00a0 However, as I have written about on the blog before, the U.S. economy has new entrants into the economy every month just from population growth.\u00a0 Specifically, I have said that the unemployment rate in the U.S. is likely to remain stubbornly high because of the preceding fact.\u00a0 But also, the unemployment rate only counts those who are looking for work.\u00a0 If you get frustrated looking for a job and stop altogether then you aren’t counted.\u00a0 But…<\/span><\/p>\n

This last point may be the source of a silver-lining in today’s “disappointment.”\u00a0 What I am saying is that folks are gaining more confidence in their ability to finally find a job, that they may be re-entering the job finding fray.\u00a0 This is something I identified as a stage in the recovery from the Great Recession about a year and a half ago.\u00a0 And we may be seeing this phenomenon kick in finally.\u00a0 If so, then today’s low job creation figures may be the first signs of a true recovery in the unemployment situation.\u00a0 To tell for sure will require more monitoring on my part.<\/span><\/p>\n

In the meantime, the stock markets are stuck at about the same point as they have been since late April and early May.\u00a0 Each time there is good news they will rise a little.\u00a0 But then when there is bad news they will fall a little.\u00a0 So here we sit.\u00a0 In calculus terms, the first derivative is a fixed number.\u00a0 However, the second derivative, momentum\/acceleration, has to be considered positive.\u00a0 That is, the U.S. economy is<\/span> doing better.\u00a0 More sectors of the economy have stabilized and are actually growing, albeit slowly.\u00a0 Eventually that will lead to actual job creation and a reduction in the unemployment rate.\u00a0 Thus, if you are an equity-type investor, I would buy on weakness in the stock market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importance grade:<\/strong>10; by now this is beyond redundant.\u00a0\u00a0[Perhaps I will coin a new word here.]\u00a0\u00a0The jobless situation in the U.S. merits a 10 in importance because our sense of collective recovery will only be positive when jobs return to the economy.\u00a0 This point of mine is absurdundant.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Expect a big stock market down draft today. November’s non-farm payrolls\u00a0(i.e. job creation) figures are in and the U.S. economy created 39,000 jobs.\u00a0 This compares to a consensus expectation from economists of 144,000 jobs created.\u00a0 Meanwhile, October’s job creation figures were revised upward to 172,000 jobs from the earlier reported 151,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rose […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2417","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2417\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2417"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2417"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}