{"id":2457,"date":"2010-12-14T08:26:40","date_gmt":"2010-12-14T15:26:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2457"},"modified":"2018-08-17T08:46:01","modified_gmt":"2018-08-17T12:46:01","slug":"how-are-the-holiday-sales","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2010\/12\/14\/how-are-the-holiday-sales\/","title":{"rendered":"How are the holiday sales?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Retail sales increased by 0.8% in November according to the U.S. Commerce Department.\u00a0 This result compares to an economists’ expected rise of 0.5%.\u00a0 Additionally, October’s retail sales figures were revised up 1.7% from their previously reported 1.2%.<\/span><\/p>\n

Analysis:<\/strong> The first thing that I want to draw your attention to is that all of the economic data that have been coming out in the last several months are positive, even if modestly so.\u00a0 Next, all of the revisions that are occuring are upward modifications to the data.\u00a0 Clearly this is a positive sign.\u00a0 I feel that it indicates that, barring any outside shocks to the system, the U.S. consumer is finally gaining some confidence.\u00a0 In turn, that should lead to additional growth in spending and that, in turn, should lead to businesses finally getting off of those piles of cash they are hoarding and actually hire some folks.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, and this is a big however, the data are still very modest.\u00a0 Back in the roaring days of the twin bubbles of the dot.com era and the real-estate era, retail sales were routinely up in excess of 3%.\u00a0 Clearly, the current data are a long way from approaching those kinds of figures.\u00a0 For each of us, the important question is whether or not the Great Recession has permanently changed the behavior of a generation of consumers?<\/span><\/p>\n

If the answer is yes, then the economic expectations that were created by 40 years of electric growth have to change.\u00a0 However, that the U.S. consumer lives within his or her means is a good thing for the sanctity and health of the United States in the long-run.\u00a0 If the answer to the question above is no, then in the short run (2-10 years) the world’s economy will report strong numbers.\u00a0 But the results will be dependant on a culture of spending\u00a0 beyond one’s means that is unsustainable.\u00a0 Me?\u00a0 I prefer the former situation.<\/span><\/p>\n

But what would the world look like without its “growth-growth-growth” religion?\u00a0 That, I promise is the topic of another blog post at some point in the future.<\/span><\/p>\n

Importance grade:<\/strong> 6; while the data are encouraging, I consider them to be lukewarm in magnitude, but SOLID.\u00a0 That is, the U.S. consumer is finally getting comfortable with the economic reality on the ground.\u00a0 Barring any unforeseen catastrophic events, the mood of the consumer will improve slowly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Retail sales increased by 0.8% in November according to the U.S. Commerce Department.\u00a0 This result compares to an economists’ expected rise of 0.5%.\u00a0 Additionally, October’s retail sales figures were revised up 1.7% from their previously reported 1.2%. Analysis: The first thing that I want to draw your attention to is that all of the economic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2457","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2457","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2457"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2457\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2457"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2457"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2457"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}