{"id":2774,"date":"2011-01-04T03:45:33","date_gmt":"2011-01-04T10:45:33","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2774"},"modified":"2018-08-16T17:42:32","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T21:42:32","slug":"the-sort-of-stock-market-surge-i-hate","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/01\/04\/the-sort-of-stock-market-surge-i-hate\/","title":{"rendered":"The sort of stock market surge I hate"},"content":{"rendered":"

Yesterday was party day across the world’s equity markets.\u00a0 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 0.8%, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock Index was up 1.1%, the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.5%, the German stock market was up 1.1%, the French stock market was up 2.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.8%.\u00a0 Supposedly the rise was triggered by encouraging data posted worldwide by factories.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a constant examiner of such data I can tell you that the sort of data logged by factories worldwide has not in recent memory served as the cause for such a powering of equity prices.\u00a0 Remember, for equities to be up by these amounts means that literally billions of dollars of wealth was created worldwide yesterday based on very limited factory data.<\/span><\/p>\n

This\u00a0is the sort of stock market surge that I hate.\u00a0 No news rises.<\/span><\/p>\n

I could speculate as to the “legitimate” causes for the surge in equity values, but it would be entirely based on speculation.\u00a0 Instead, I would like to point out that I much prefer stock market surges that can be traced to legit causes.\u00a0 That let’s me know that equity investors are being rational.\u00a0 The converse situation bothers me because it smells like a rise based on euphoria.<\/span><\/p>\n

In my 2011 Predictions<\/a>\u00a0I stated that I felt equities would rise 10-14%.\u00a0 So clearly I am bullish on U.S. equities.\u00a0 However, that enthusiasm is based on evidence of an improving economy, coupled with an intuitive sense that people are feeling better about themselves and their lives.\u00a0 I also like that many U.S. consumers and businesses have done the hard work to get their finances more in order over the last two years.\u00a0 These choices have resulted in a prepared economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

One of the reasons for the hard scrabble of 2008-2009 was the crazy rise in equity valuations of 2002-2008 based on exuberance and imagination to a much greater extent than reality.\u00a0 Yesterday’s equity market rises had a lack of attribution that had the whiff of excitement, not realism.\u00a0 I hate that!<\/span><\/p>\n

Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yesterday was party day across the world’s equity markets.\u00a0 The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 0.8%, the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock Index was up 1.1%, the NASDAQ Composite was up 1.5%, the German stock market was up 1.1%, the French stock market was up 2.5%, and the Stoxx Europe 600 was up 0.8%.\u00a0 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2774","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2774","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2774"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2774\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2774"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2774"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2774"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}