{"id":2785,"date":"2011-01-05T07:08:39","date_gmt":"2011-01-05T14:08:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=2785"},"modified":"2018-08-16T17:40:02","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T21:40:02","slug":"payrolls-rolling-on","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/01\/05\/payrolls-rolling-on\/","title":{"rendered":"Payrolls rolling on!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">This morning payroll processing firm of massive proportion, Automatic Data Processing, reported that its estimate of December job creation in the United States was 297,000.\u00a0 The expected gain by a gang of economists was 100,000.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Analysis: <\/strong>Clearly this is a very, very favorable number.\u00a0 For the first time since the Great Recession the job creation figure GREATLY exceeds its estimate.\u00a0 It is difficult to argue that the increase (or, if it had been a decrease) is due to statistical error and likely to be revised.\u00a0 Even if this job creation of 297,000 is revised downward, it will still have exceeded expectations by a sizable magnitude.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I would expect that financial markets will go bezonkers (a technical term) today.\u00a0 This is because of the massively unexpected nature of the data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I wrote on Monday about how I hate &#8220;<a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2011\/01\/04\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-the-sort-of-stock-market-surge-i-hate\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">no news moves<\/a>&#8221; in the stock market &#8211; here though, there is ample justification.\u00a0 Or, in Jason Voss-speak, there is cause, so don&#8217;t pause.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Friday will bring the official Department of Labor statistics about jobless claims which will dispel any concerns that folks might have about the ADP data.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Importance grade: <\/strong>10; without question this is one of the most important pieces of data to happen since the Great Recession ensued multiple years ago.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>This morning payroll processing firm of massive proportion, Automatic Data Processing, reported that its estimate of December job creation in the United States was 297,000.\u00a0 The expected gain by a gang of economists was 100,000. Analysis: Clearly this is a very, very favorable number.\u00a0 For the first time since the Great Recession the job creation [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2785","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2785"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2785\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2785"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2785"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2785"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}