{"id":3003,"date":"2011-01-20T08:04:09","date_gmt":"2011-01-20T15:04:09","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.jasonapollovoss.local\/?p=3003"},"modified":"2018-08-15T20:43:08","modified_gmt":"2018-08-16T00:43:08","slug":"china-update","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/2011\/01\/20\/china-update\/","title":{"rendered":"China update"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In my <a href=\"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web2010\/12\/13\/what-my-intuition-tells-me-now-2011-predictions\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">2011 predictions<\/a> I had some fairly strong predictions for China.\u00a0 While it has only been a little more than a month since that post China is very much a part of the news at the moment.\u00a0 That&#8217;s because Hu Jintao, the Chinese leader, is currently visiting the United States, and because China&#8217;s fourth quarter gross domestic product figures have just come out.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">I am going to take these in turn.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Chinese-U.S. summit<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">That which has been discussed so far has been m.o.t.s.\u00a0 That is, &#8220;more of the same.&#8221;\u00a0 In other words, neither president has said or done anything to change the nature of Chinese-U.S. relations at this point.\u00a0 The dynamic of these relations has been firmly entrenched for over a decade.\u00a0 But something inescapable is happening and almost everyone with access to news knows it.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">China keeps growing economically.\u00a0 Countries whose economies are large need a military to protect their global interests.\u00a0 Militaries tend to clash at some point.\u00a0 I don&#8217;t think there is anyone who doesn&#8217;t envision a time in the next 50 years where China and the United States have a reckoning.\u00a0 Mind you, I&#8217;m not saying a war, but a reckoning.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">But for now, the current summit between the two nations is not the venue for amping up the tension between the two nations.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">But for now, what about that economy?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\"><strong>Chinese GDP<\/strong><\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The world&#8217;s second largest economy reportedly grew 9.8% in the fourth quarter.\u00a0 While it may seem on the surface that this is a good thing, I assure you that the government of China is worried.\u00a0 Why?<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">The economy of China is in the midst of a bubble that they are afraid is about to burst.\u00a0 In fact, the government has been enacting a number of &#8216;austerity measures&#8217; to rein in the economy.\u00a0 Those actions don&#8217;t seem to be working.\u00a0 In fact, I said in my 2011 predictions:<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">&#8220;The timing of the bursting of [China&#8217;s] economic bubble is difficult to assess.\u00a0 This is because the government there has demonstrated a willingness to use lying, manipulation, and authoritarianism to gloss over its problems.\u00a0 Yet, inevitably a day of economic reckoning will come in China.\u00a0 Just how severe its economic bubble bursting is, and its timing, is crucial.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">So the faster than expected economic growth in China is not a good thing.\u00a0 It means that more austerity measures need to be put into place.\u00a0 Further, it also increases the likelihood of chaos in the global economy when the bubble finally does burst.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Separately, I find it interesting that the Chinese have a fourth quarter gross domestic product number out already.\u00a0 The Chinese economy has more than triple the number of participants as the U.S. economy.\u00a0 And the accounting systems in China are a little backward.\u00a0 Yet, here we have a number published a mere three weeks after the end of the year.\u00a0 This is amazing.\u00a0 Amazingly suspicious.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Yes, I do mean to imply that the Chinese data are not trustworthy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">In conclusion then, I don&#8217;t see any reason to alter my 2011 prediction on China.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 16px;\">Jason<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>In my 2011 predictions I had some fairly strong predictions for China.\u00a0 While it has only been a little more than a month since that post China is very much a part of the news at the moment.\u00a0 That&#8217;s because Hu Jintao, the Chinese leader, is currently visiting the United States, and because China&#8217;s fourth [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3003","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-the-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3003","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3003"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3003\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3003"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3003"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jasonapollovoss.com\/web\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3003"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}